Who Won the VP Debate?

We can't answer the question of who won the VP debate until we see how the debate changes the polls, but we can review what might play role in how the debate affects those polls.

As we saw in the first presidential debate, body language will inform voters' decisions. In her interviews with Charles Gibson and Katie Couric, Gov. Palin's posture shrunk and writhed with discomfort and uncertainty. But none of that fear made its way into her performance in the debate. Both Senator Biden and Gov. Palin looked like leaders. Sarah Palin stood tall and smiled a lot. Joe Biden exuded confidence, especially in his laughter.

The audience came to the debate with an overwhelming concern about Palin's ability to answer the questions. In her interviews, Palin forfeited answering questions in favor of reciting irrelevant talking points. While she still ignored the questions in favor of talking points, Palin's "answers" in the debate were no longer convoluted, uncertain, or overwhelmingly irrelevant.

Biden, too, avoided making the types of gaffes that the press had outlined over the past several days. Both candidates passed the tests of body language and articulateness.

Where Biden surpassed Palin was in his ability to answer the moderator's actual questions, as well as in his ability to respond to his opponent's statements. Where Palin's "answers" were memorized generalities, Biden's answers were thoughtful improvisations that revealed how attuned he was to the situation.

So who won the debate?

I expect that Palin stabilized McCain's wavering base. To the extent that McCain's recent plummet in the polls came from a growing Republican discomfort with his VP selection, Palin's performance will recuperate most of that lost support.

Does this mean that McCain will surpass Obama in the polls? No. Palin's inability to differentiate McCain's policies from Bush's will not win over independents. Meanwhile, Biden was able to strengthen the undecideds' understanding of Obama's stances. Biden corrected misunderstandings, and bolstered support for his candidate.

McCain may recover most of his recent losses in the polls, but I expect that Obama will continue winning over swing states.