McCain Bails Out of Michigan… without talking to Sarah Palin

If you’re curious to know what kind of input Governor Sarah Palin might have in a McCain White House, we got a pretty good idea this week. Without consulting with Governor Palin, John McCain and the lobbyists running his campaign made the decision to pull out of Michigan and virtually concede the state to his Democratic rival, Senator Barack Obama. But Palin couldn’t disagree with the move more, believing in the original Michigan philosophy stressed by the McCain campaign before the primaries even ended. Believing that John McCain’s moderate stance on the issues made him a real contender for state.

I’m going to put away my anti-McCain blogger pants and discuss strategy. There’s no bias, one way or the other, going into my analysis of the situation.

Long story short, McCain probably did the right thing. Although Michigan has continuously been listed as a battleground state for the past several elections, the truth of the matter is that it’s a pretty reliable pick up for Democrats. Even if Mitt Romney, the son of a former Michigan Governor, was nominated as the GOP’s candidate, he wouldn’t have won Michigan.

Making matters worse, states like Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, North Carolina, and Virginia are up for grabs in 2008 and Obama is pouring a lot of money into these traditionally conservative and Republican states. If McCain loses Virginia or any combination of two of those states while carrying all the other states Bush carried in 2004, McCain would lose the election.

Although McCain supporters said McCain would be able to compete in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and even California; which have been trending Democrat; the reality today is that McCain’s best chance for victory in November is to pull a near-repeat of President Bush’s electoral victory in 2004.

Unfortunately, this isn’t a problem that will be over in November. Although Indiana and North Carolina are still relatively conservative states, Virginia has been tilting Democrat for several years and once it goes blue, we’re going to have one hell of a difficult time bringing it back into the Republican fold. The reality facing the future of the Republican Party is that we may need to figure out a new way to win Presidential Elections without Virginia and Colorado. Electorally, that’s damn near impossible. We may have to turn our attention north to Wisconsin, build stronger organizations in New Hampshire, and pray for some sort of shift in Oregon, Washington, or Minnesota.

I’m going to be MIA a lot this week. I have two exams on Tuesday and Thursday and I’m going to need to study until my eyes fall out if I’m going to ruin the curve for all the other folks in my class. Yeah, I’m that guy.