2008 Presidential Candidates

Failure to Make a Consensus Conservative Candidate Will Result in Romney’s Nomination

Mitt Romney Campaigning in South Carolina in January 2012

The South Carolina Primary is now precious few days away and Mitt Romney’s lead is still holding as Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry are dividing the conservative anti-Romney vote. According to the latest Real Clear Politics average of polls, Romney has a 4.7% lead in South Carolina.

Romney – 26.7%
Gingrich – 22%
Santorum – 14.7%
Paul – 14.7%
Perry – 5.7%
Huntsman – 5.7%

However, considering that Mitt Romney has won the first two contests of this race and is ahead in South Carolina but hasn’t knocked out any of his competition, it’s safe to assume the core of the Republican Party is not satisfied with Mitt Romney. Therefore, here’s another way to look at the polling.

Mitt Romney – 26.7%
Anti-Romney – 42.4%
Other – 20.4%
Undecided – 10.5%

(According to a very recent Reuters poll, Romney has a 21% lead over Gingrich. I have severe doubts about the accuracy of those results.)

This data reflects polling done before the Santorum endorsement given by a large group of normally spineless evangelical leaders, including James Dobson and Tony Perkins. The fact that this endorsement came so late probably means it won’t mean anything in the decisions voters are making. If it does anything, it’s going to hurt Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich.

The reason these evangelicals even made an endorsement is because their fan base was pissed after 2008, blaming them for not backing Huckabee sooner before Fred Thompson could do all the damage he did to that campaign. In a lot of ways, their inaction was to blame for McCain’s nomination.

Since then, the importance of these “leaders” has waned significantly. Not only because their followers discovered they were more concerned with money and power than morality, but also because social issues like abortion and gay marriage have taken a back seat to federal and state budget and economic issues. But at least now, they will argue, you can’t blame them for not backing a candidate.

If they had made their endorsement sooner, it might have mattered. This late however, I agree with most of the other analyst bloggers out there, it won’t matter.

The real failure this year isn’t on them, however. The Republican Party is overwhelmingly decided that they do NOT want Mitt Romney to represent them in the General Election. The problem is that there are three guys who are absolutely convinced that they should be the candidate instead. It’s the fault of Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry that Mitt Romney will become the nominee. If any one of these candidates would drop out and immediately endorse one of their rivals (except Perry), they would be the kingmaker of 2012. If two would drop out and endorse someone, it would be a landslide against Mitt Romney.

Now, whether Gingrich and Perry endorse Santorum or Santorum and Perry endorse Gingrich, it doesn’t matter. The fact of the matter is that the Republican Party would be thrilled and greatly represented by either one of these guys, especially when compared to Mitt Romney.

When Mitt Romney becomes our nominee, it will be the egos of these other candidates that are to blame.