Polls are Open and I’m Making a Few Predictions

UPDATE: Ron Paul IS on the Indiana Republican Ballot. I was looking at an out of date list of candidates and Paul’s supporters didn’t get him on the ballot until the last minute.

Being in Indiana, I’ve admittedly paid little attention to the North Carolina Primary. That said, I expect Hillary Clinton to come out of Indiana with a 6-7% victory and Barack Obama with anywhere between a 4%-9% victory in North Carolina, depending on a variety of factors.

Ron Paul won’t be on the Indiana Republican Party ballot, but Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee will be. I expect them to steal at least 10% of the vote from McCain - possibly as much as 15%, similar to what we saw in Pennsylvania where Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee took a combined 30% of the vote from McCain.

Since Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee arguably appeal to the same type of voter though, it’s unlikely we’ll see that level of defection, especially since Indiana conservatives don’t typically make political statements - even if they hate his guts, they’re probably going to support their candidate.

In North Carolina however, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul are the ones on the ballot and after John McCain accused them of being “out of touch with reality” after a somewhat underhanded fundraising ad, you’re MUCH more likely to see Republicans defecting there. I don’t know how many GOP voters out there heard of McCain’s re-discovered support for a Path to Citizenship yesterday, but if enough people did hear about it - we could see over 30% of Republicans voting against McCain in North Carolina.

It should be noted that the evangelical population in North Carolina is considerably more predominant than in Pennsylvania and Republicans in general in that state tend to lean towards the Libertarian side of the party, which is good for both Huckabee and Paul supporters.

If McCain wanted to use Huckabee effectively, he’d have him going to these states and telling Christians to vote for the party’s nominee. Personally, I think McCain is on a crusade to completely destroy the GOP, but that’s just my opinion.

All the while, both states are holding local and congressional primaries as well as presidential primaries. Here’s what to keep an eye on in Indiana.

The Republican nomination for Indiana’s first Congressional district. This is a long-held Democratic seat, dominated by Representative Pete Visclosky, who brings tons of national Democratic Party money into the district to support other Democrats across this district, but mostly in Lake and Porter Counties. The three significant challengers are Mark Leyva (he’s my guy), Chuck Barman (former Libertarian candidate), and Ric Holtz (who voted in his first Republican Primary in 2006 - the first time he ran). Leyva has been the candidate of the Party every election cycle since 2002. Leyva, who’s a Fair Tax supporter, is really the only candidate who stands a shot of damaging Visclosky in this heavily Democratic district since the other two quite frankly come across as amateurish and maybe a little unstable. Normally, Leyva wouldn’t have anything to worry about, but he’s spent the last few weeks off the campaign trail recovering from a torn retina. He should be back and operational later this week, but being on doctor’s orders has caused some concern. I expect him to pull off another primary victory, but I’m curious to see how the injury affects his final vote tally.

Finally, in what will perhaps be the most significant congressional primary in the entire country, Indiana’s second Congressional district is a race we’ve talked about here. Luke Puckett and Tony Zirkle are in tough primary battle. Puckett is a Baptist Missionary, businessman, and a huge supporter of ALL national security assets. Tony Zirkle on the other hand has virtually no accomplishments to his name and was even caught campaigning at a Nazi Party celebration of Adolf Hitler’s 119th birthday. The liberal press in South Bend and surrounding areas have given Zirkle almost a free pass though, encouraging readers to vote for Zirkle over Puckett. Needless to say, that would be devastating to the National Republican Party’s hopes of winning back any seats in 2008. Representative Joe Donnelly is the first term Democrat incumbent. He won this seat from Chris Chocola in 2006. Puckett has his ducks in a row though and is poised to take back this hotly contested seat.

Anyway, I’m off to my old childhood elementary school to cast my vote.

Assuming my office stops smelling like bleach (from cleaning), I’ll provide primary night coverage and analysis. So be sure to come back tonight!