Academy Awards

How to Win Your Oscar Prediction Pool

(Photos: Getty Images, Flynet Pictures, Pacific Coast News)

If there's a pop culture equivalent to Super Bowl Sunday, it's Oscar night. There's plenty of pre-game buildup; people go all out for viewing parties, and, of course, there's the all-important ritual of predicting who's going to win. Scoring big on your personal Oscar ballot means earning bragging rights for a whole year, so leave nothing to chance. This year, we've done the research for you. Now it's time to impress your friends and colleagues and win your Oscar pool.

Tip: In an effort to avoid the "predictable" label, the Academy uses the Best Supporting Actress honor as their wildcard category.

Historical Precedent: Ever since Marisa Tomei shocked Oscar pundits in 1993 with her win over Vanessa Redgrave, the Best Supporting Actress category has been filled with upsets. Angelina Jolie had the worst odds in 2000 for her over-the-top Girl, Interrupted performance, but she walked away with the trophy. Catharine Zeta-Jones beat out perennial Oscar favorite Meryl Streep in '03. Cate Blanchett got upset in back to back years when she lost to an American Idol alum in Jennifer Hudson in '07 and to Tilda Swinton in '08 for a performance that only saw Swinton on-screen for about 15 minutes.

How It Applies: This year, the favorites are between Octavia Spencer (The Help) and Bernice Bejo (The Artist), and two of the other three nominees come from what one would call "serious" films, which means the biggest wildcard is Melissa McCarthy for her fecal-filled yet heartfelt performance in Bridesmaids. If you like a gamble, McCarthy's your bet.

Sorry lady-dudes... No Oscar for you. (Roadside Attractions) Tip: Unless you're Hilary Swank, cross-gender performances will get you a nomination but not a win.

Historical Precedent: The Academy likes it when established actors go way against type, so far against type that they end up playing the opposite sex. However, other than Hilary Swank's win for Boys Don't Cry, these cross-dressing performances just don't cross the Oscar finish line. Everyone from Dustin Hoffman (Tootsie) to Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There) to Felicity Huffman (Transamerica) failed to win for their gender bending roles.

How It Applies: Given Academy Awards history, it doesn't look like we'll see Albert Nobbs' Janet McTeer or Glenn Close give acceptance speeches come Oscar night.

Who's your pick? (Fox / Weinstein Company) Tip: The Best Picture and Best Director awards go to the same film more often than people realize.

Historical Precedent: The popular belief out there is that when two films are clear favorites for Best Picture, the Academy is diplomatic and awards both films by splitting the Best Picture/Best Director honors. However, in the last 10 years, this has only happened twice, when Brokeback Mountain and Crash split in 2006 and The Pianist and Chicago split in 2003. So, if you did the math, you realize that the last five years have all had the same film win both awards, including last year when everyone thought The King's Speech would split with The Social Network by finally giving David Fincher his due in the directing category.

How It Applies: This year's favorites are The Artist and The Descendants, so pick one, and slot it into both the Best Picture and Best Director categories.

Go, Grandpa! (Getty Images) Tip: The old guy has the edge in the Best Supporting Actor category.

Historical Precedent: Given that, for the most part, the Academy is a bunch of stodgy old white dudes, it shouldn't come as a shock that they reward their own. This usually comes true in the Supporting Actor realm that sometimes seems more like a lifetime achievement award than an honor for the year's actual best performance. In the last 20 years, the following actors have taken home the award: Martin Landau, James Coburn, Alan Arkin, Jim Broadbent, Chris Cooper, and Morgan Freeman. What do they have in common? They were all over 50 when they won.

How It Applies: This year, there's a few vets in the ranks. Your best bet is to go with Christopher Plummer because not only has he swept the other awards shows, but his performance in Beginners is most deserving. Plus, he's the oldest nominee in the bunch.

Ladies dig the French thing. (Bauer Griffin)
Tip: Be on the lookout for the international contingent.

Historical Precedent: Recently, Oscar voters haven't been afraid to reward foreign actors with the Academy's prestigious acting honors. In just the last five years, we've seen Penelope Cruz, Javier Bardem, Marion Cotillard, and Christoph Waltz win, and both Cotillard and Waltz were relatively unknown to American audiences when they took home the award.

How It Applies: If you think George Clooney has the Best Actor locked up because he's got the American vote, think again. Jean Dujardin could steal this one.

Tip: If a Best Foreign Language Film nominee is nominated in any other category, it'll probably win in its mother category.

Historical Precedent: The average Oscar viewer just wings it when it comes to picking a Best Foreign Language Film winner because how are you supposed to make an educated prediction when you haven't seen any of the nominees and when there's almost no buzz surrounding the category? Well, since Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon worked its way into the Best Picture field in 2000, whenever one of the Foreign Language nominees gets multi-nominated, the Academy leans its way. It happened with CTHD, and again with The Barbarian Invasions (2003) and The Sea Inside (2004).

How It Applies: This year, Iranian import A Separation got a nod in the Original Screenplay category, which it won't win. So, to compensate, you can lock it in for Best Foreign Film.

Don't be mad. You'll still win some Oscar bling. (Warner Bros.)
Tip: Successful, action/adventure flicks that aren't "prestigious" enough to get a Best Picture nomination get rewarded by winning in lesser categories.

Historical Precedent: By "lesser categories," we're referring to those that you have little idea what to pick for your winner. These are your editing, sound, makeup, effects kind of categories. For example, despite being one of the best reviewed films of the year and a box office smash, the Matrix wasn't deemed worthy of a major nomination, but it did take home four under-the-radar Oscars. The same is true for the first two Lord of the Rings movies, King Kong, The Bourne Ultimatum, and Inception.

How It Applies: Many felt that Harry Potter and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo were curiously absent from the Best Picture category, so expect the Academy to make up for it with wins in other categories.

Tip: The big word-of-mouth movie of the year has a decent shot at scoring an unexpected win in the screenplay categories.

Historical Precedent: Whether it's the feel-good indie or the out-of-nowhere comedic hit, the Academy has a tendency to get caught up in the hype of these breakout blockbusters; however, they temper their excitement when it comes to the Best Picture honor. Instead, these buzz-worthy, grass roots kind of films end up being recognized in the writing categories. Think back to winners Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. No one in awards circles expected to see these films show up on nomination ballots until consumer approval reached a point that couldn't be ignored. Rather than politicking their way into Oscar contention, these are bottom up movies that get rewarded (or relegated) to screenplay Oscars.

How It Applies: If there's one nominee that fits the bill of this paradigm, it's Bridesmaids. It'll be tough going up against The Artist and Woody Allen's Midnight in Paris, both incredibly charming, but the raunchy comedy that's been praised as a game-changer for women in Hollywood has a decent shot.

Tip: An actor's Academy Award resume counts when it comes to getting nominated, not when it comes to winning.

Historical Precedent: Combined, how many Oscars do Al Pacino, Robert De Niro, and Jack Nicholson have, considering they've been nominated a whopping total of 26 times? The answer: A measly six. Even more inexplicable, Pacino went seven nominations before winning in 1993, meaning the only Oscar he has on his mantle isn't for The Godfather or Serpico or Dog Day Afternoon… It's for Scent of Woman. Hoo-ah... What?!

How It Applies: Meryl Streep is everyone's clear-cut favorite to run away with the Best Actress Oscar, but know this: This is Streep's 17th nomination, and she's only ever won two. The fact that the Academy seems obligated to nominate her just about every year doesn't mean she's guaranteed a win. On the flipside, this may be Michelle Williams' year. After three nominations in six years, she's due.

Tip: The Academy very rarely breaks ranks with the DGA.

Historical Precedent: Over the last 60 years, the winner of the Directors Guild of America Award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement has gone on to win the Best Director Oscar an astonishing 54 times.

How It Applies: This year's DGA winner was The Artist's Michel Hazanavicius, which means there's a damn good chance he repeats the honor at the Academy Awards.

Don't let this be your face come Monday morning. (NBC)
Tip: Know how your peers think.

How It Applies: Gambling 101 dictates that your best way to win is to know how your opponents are going to play. If you want to separate from the pack, vote against the crowd on a few categories. To help you with that, we polled Zimbio readers last week. Here's how the thousands of voters weighed in on the six major categories.

Best Actor: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Best Director: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Picture: The Artist