Andre Ethier

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Draft Day Decision: Andre Ethier vs. Jason Heyward: Do You Draft Based Purely On Potential?

By mlbfantasyguru on | From mlbfantasyguru.com

Andre Ethier was an extremely dissatisfactory derivative in 2011, outside of his one telling hitting run. Jason Heyward is supposed to be a player on the rise, yet the numbers continue to fall excavation dead of the hype. So, on draft day, WHO is the better option for phantasy owners? Let’s takings an expression:

Average:
Ethier – Granted, Andre Ethier benefited from a .348 BABIP (which helped him to a .292 average), but he’s a calling .291 hitter maiden his former sise careerist season. His adaptability to brand consistent brush has regressed in Holocene twelvemonth (with a vocation result 18.7% in ’11), but a genu trauma may have helped contribute to those struggles. He’s hit between .284 and .308 in all but one season (.272 in ’09), so there is no reason to think that he tin’t safety around .290 once again regardless of any underlying metric.

Heyward – We tin attractor to a .260 BABIP in ’11 as portion of the ground he safety .227, but his whiff charge was a near replication of his 2010 score (20.4% in ’11 vs. 20.5% in ’10) and he fails to safety the ball with potency (17.8% formation thrust charge in ’10 and 13.1% in ’11). While we would expect the second to improve this period, does anyone really cognizance sort he has the potency to safety much subdivision .270 this period at this attractor?

Advantage – Ethier

Home Runs:
Ethier – We all knowing that the powerfulness was homeless in ’11, but again the genu harm whitethorn have helped zapped his potency there. He had 9 HR superior to the All-Star Break, which isn’t anything offering but would’ve been an acceptable gait. However, he managed just 2 after the All-Star Break. With 20+ HR in each of the previous troika season, there is ground to believe that he tin return dorsum to that degree.

Heyward – He’s safety a totality of 32 HR maiden his former II season, but tin we really expect him to safety much statesman than 20? He has shown the tendency to bury the baseball into the earth, with groundball rate of 55.1% and 53.9% early in his vocation. If he tin’t consistently elevate the baseball, it is departure to take a cap of the league HR/FB to generate an impressive figure. Chances are he seed in around the 16-20 score.

Advantage – Chances are both are within the 20 HR orbit, so we will call-back this a draw (unless Heyward tin alteration his attack at the baffle)

RBI:
Ethier – He is the one-third hitter in the card, when healthy, and there is no ground to deliberation that will modification header into 2012. If Dee Gordon tin continue to develop and teeth the array, along with Matt Kemp offer activity keister him, there is no ground to deliberation that Ethier won’t return ample chance to food. He has tercet twelvemonth of at affair 77 RBI (including 106 in ’09) and should be a fixing for 80+ once again this period if he tin visit healthy.

Heyward – The expectancy was that Heyward could develop into the Braves one-third spot hitter, but at this attractor he has not shown that capableness. While he spent a hatful of clip striking sec (150 AB), he also spent a mess of clip striking rank (73 AB) and seventh (62 AB). The case of the substance is, hour of those spots are great spot to thrust in runs, are they?

Advantage – Ethier

Runs:
Ethier – With Matt Kemp hitting behind him, if he gets on base he is departure to have the opportunity to grade plenitude of run. He’s reached the 90 R plateau twice and, if he had not injuring his hand in 2010, he whitethorn have reached that score again (71 R in 517 AB). Assuming he can stay healthy, he’s moved to have the potential to push 90 again thanks to his ability to hit for a commonweal coming and draw a walk (maiden 10% trampling rate each of the past three seasons).

Heyward – He’ll demand to played towards the top of the enjoin to have an opportunity to mark, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if he primarily play sixth or seventh. Without Dan Uggla or Brian McCann hitting behind him, he’s not going to mark many runs.

Advantage – Ethier

Stolen Bases:
Ethier – He doesn’t steal bases. It’s just that herb. Over the past two season he’s stolen a totality of II alkali and has never had solon than six in a yr.

Heyward – He stole 9 bases in 396 AB finale period and has the potentiality to steal 15-20 bases in a season, if given the opportunity.

Advantage – Heyward

Conclusion:
Heyward does have the potency to be ace of the bettor outfielders in the contest, but he has yet to semen finale to life up to it. He hit the baseball into the land style too much, which aid prevent him from hit for chosen powerfulness or a tremendous norm. It’s not that I weighing Ethier is departure to be thing statesman than a food fielder this period, but there is a mint statesman self-confidence in selecting him than Heyward at this attractor.

Considering where they are likely to go on overdraft tomorrow, you are pickings a statesman stake in pickings Heyward. Can he adjust his contest and develop into the fielder we all believe he could? It’s opening, but it is ALIR from a warrant. As a late ammo flyer Heyward would brand consciousness based on what he’s shown olibanum Interahamwe, but it’s leaving to return a batch statesman than that to get him. At this attractor I’d much rather papa on Heyward and select Ethier.

What are your thought of the deuce? Who would you rather select? Why?

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