Ten questions the Red Sox must answer for 2010

Since Theo Epstein was hired as general manager after the 2002 season, the Boston Red Sox have won two World Series titles, lost in Game Seven of the ALCS twice and reached the ALDS two times. Not a bad track record for a seven-year tenure, six of those with manager Terry Francona.

I bring up Epstein's resume as GM of the Red Sox for one reason. With help from an ownership group led by John Henry, who is willing to spend money; and guidance from an on-field staff headed by Francona, Brad Mills and John Farrell; Epstein has earned the trust of Red Sox Nation. The Sox are a perennial World Series contender, they have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball and they are one of the best franchises in the game. This is why it is unwise for reporters, bloggers and fans to think that Boston's surprising ALDS exit is a sign of impending decline.

While it is true that the Red Sox are saddled with some bad contracts for 2010 - David Ortiz and Mike Lowell are signed through next season, and Jason Varitek can pick up his $3 million player option - the team's core players are entering their prime or still in it. Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jonathan Papelbon are examples.

Of course, the Red Sox are a team with holes to fill and questions to answer. This will be one of Epstein's most important off-seasons. In 2009, Boston was streaky. The offense was productive, but sometimes it would disappear for multiple games. The bats also struggled to consistently generate runs away from Fenway Park. The defense was less effective than expected, at least until Alex Gonzalez was acquired. It is no wonder that Epstein told the media that he wants to improve the team defense and upgrade the offense so it will be more productive on the road.

With this in mind, here are some questions facing Epstein, and speculation about what his answers will be:

1. Who will play left field for the Red Sox in 2010? It appears that the Sox want to bring back Jason Bay, and Bay wants to return to Boston, but a deal has not been reached and Bay will likely test the free agent market. Since the Sox need to enhance their offense in the off-season, it must sign either Bay or Matt Holliday. Holliday is represented by Scott Boras, so his price tag may be too exorbitant for the Sox. Bay's price tag will be high, too, but more reasonable than Holliday. Holliday is a little more than a year younger than Bay, is regarded as a better defensive left fielder (though Bay is better in left field than he is given credit for) and hits for a higher average, but Bay is a proven power hitter and fits well in the Red Sox lineup and clubhouse. I prefer Bay, and in the end I think he will return to Boston.
2. Will Jason Varitek return? The Red Sox will decline Varitek's $5 million team option for 2010, but the captain could pick up his $3 million player option. If the latter happens, the Sox must decide whether to eat the $3 million or bring back Varitek in a backup role, knowing that his bat is no longer a threat and opposing baserunners steal with ease. I would like to see Boston sign someone like Rod Barajas or Yorvit Torrealba as the backup catcher, but I have a feeling that Varitek will pick up his player option and the Sox will bring him back in 2010.
3. What will the Red Sox do with Mike Lowell and David Ortiz? If Epstein was making decisions based on Monopoly money, the Sox would probably eat the $12.5 million for Ortiz and the $12 million for Lowell in 2010. But John Henry's money is real, and though he loves to win, he is first and foremost a businessman. I would like to see the Sox cut ties with Ortiz, move Lowell to the DH spot and bring in a power-hitting first baseman who can play defense (like Adrian Gonzalez). Though Lowell's mobility has diminished because of his hip problems, he is still a respectable defensive third baseman, and he delivers clutch hits. He has more trade value than Ortiz, thus the reason I believe that Ortiz will likely be back in 2010, and Lowell will be dealt, with Boston picking up some of his contract.
4. Who will the new big bat be? It is clear that Epstein will make a trade to bring in another big bat. That move could lead to the departure of Ortiz or Lowell. Gonzalez is a player the Sox covet. Since Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard are off limits, the Sox would likely have to give San Diego a package that included Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden, Manny Delcarmen, Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish and a prized pitcher like Casey Kelly, who has emerged as Boston's top prospect. Pitching prospects like Stolmy Pimentel and Felix Doubront could also be in the mix. It would be costly in terms of prospects, but Gonzalez is a better fit for Epstein's approach (which includes run prevention, and Gonzalez is a solid defensive first baseman) than Prince Fielder, another player Boston is rumored to be interested in acquiring. Of course, Fielder could serve as the DH if Ortiz is traded or released.
5. Who will play shortstop for the Red Sox in 2010? Alex Gonzalez stabilized the shortstop position and the infield defense when he returned to the Sox in August. He has a $6 million team option for 2010 that will likely be declined, but Boston could negotiate a new one-year deal. Epstein is still high on Jed Lowrie, who is a proficient defensive infielder and a productive hitter when healthy. Of course, he has not been healthy the last two seasons while battling a wrist injury. The Sox have been linked to Milwaukee's J.J. Hardy, who had a bad year in 2009 but still has tremendous upside. There is also a chance that the Sox make a prominent trade for someone like Atlanta's Yunel Escobar. My initial guess is that Gonzalez will start at shortstop for the Sox in 2010, and Lowrie will serve as the super utility man who can play all four infield spots.
6. Will the Red Sox trade Jonathan Papelbon? Though the team's all-time saves leader had another strong season (aside from the blown save in Game Three of the ALDS), he will be a free agent after the 2011 season, and he is due a big jump in salary with arbitration. The Sox could use him a trade bait to acquire a big bat (Philadelphia could use a closer). Trading Papelbon would definitely generate Hot Stove League drama, but now that Billy Wagner is considering retirement, chances are the Sox will keep Papelbon. Daniel Bard appears to be the closer of the future, but he could use a full year at the major league level as a set-up man. I think that Papelbon will be in a Red Sox uniform in 2010.
7. Will the Sox sign Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez to extensions? It is a no-brainer that Boston will pick up V-Mart's $7 million team option for 2010. Josh Beckett's $12 million team option for 2010 vested. The Sox might be more likely to sign Martinez to an extension this off-season than Beckett. Martinez is 31, and he will catch in 2010, but he can move to first base or DH down the line. Beckett will be 30 next May - still in his prime - but he has experienced back spasms this year and last year. The Sox could wait until next season to determine whether to sign him to another contract.
8. Will the Sox pick up Tim Wakefield's $4 million option? According to media reports, Wakefield's back issue will be resolved with surgery, and the recovery time will be minimal. In Epstein's press conference on Monday, he seemed to express that Wakefield will be in the team's 2010 plans. Boston's rotation looks solid for next season with Beckett, Jon Lester, a healthy Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buchholz. If the Sox bring back Wakefield, then likely they will sign veteran starter for back of the rotation depth. I like the idea of taking a chance on Rich Harden, but he won't be cheap. Erik Bedard is another possibility. The Sox are also said to be interested in 22-year-old Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman. Of course, several other teams are also intrigued. The Sox will also be linked to potential trades for Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay. Epstein seems more intrigued with King Felix, but he would cost more in terms of prospects than Gonzalez. Another trade possibility is Florida's Josh Johnson. It would not surprise me to see the Sox pursue him.
9. What about Hideki Okajima and Takashi Saito? Okajima is a free agent, and the Sox have $6 million option on Saito. Okajima will probably return. The Sox could decline Saito's option and work out a more reasonable one-year deal.
10. Who will be the team's fourth outfielder in 2010? It could be Rocco Baldelli, who is a free agent, but the Sox might prefer a more durable alternative. Josh Reddick is promising, but he could use a full season at Pawtucket, and he is a left-handed hitter. The Sox need a right-handed hitting fourth outfielder who can start in place of J.D. Drew against tough lefties. Brian Anderson is a possibility, but he seems best suited as insurance at the Triple-A level. Jermaine Dye is an option, though his defense has regressed. This might be an area that the Sox address via trade.

There is no doubt that the Hot Stove League after the 2010 season will be easier for Epstein since the contracts of Lowell, Ortiz, Varitek and Julio Lugo (to whom the Sox owe $9 million in 2010) will be off the books. The Sox could trade or release Lowell or Ortiz this off-season, but that will cost Henry more money, and he is already paying Lugo to play for St. Louis.

This off-season will test Epstein's ability to make creative deals and land the right free agents to fit Boston's needs. The Sox will have a different look in 2010, and Epstein has an abundance of work awaiting him during the Hot Stove League, but Red Sox Nation can rest assured that he will field another strong World Series contender next season.