Eastern European Revolution

Actually, that is a lie.

A revolution on the streets of Minsk tonight is about as likely as Tony Blair telling the truth.

Still, being here on the day of Presidential elections in Belarus is an interesting opportunity to watch democracy not working.

An hour ago, Emily and I watched in eerie silence as a line of Soviet buses with blacked-out windows made their way through Minsk.

These buses are here to scare people, but also to serve their purpose; they are prison buses, ready to transport protestors and opposition supporters to the nearest jail.

As they passed, Emily wept, and girls in their teens and twenties with flowers in their hair paused for a moment before continuing on their way to the centre of Minsk, where they hope that tonight history will be made on the streets of this communist capital.

The central metro station in Minsk is closed due to, as the authorities put it, 'technical reasons'. In reality, the station is closed to make it more difficult for people to travel to the centre of Minsk in the hope of staging a Ukrainian style revolution.

The metro station is not the only place closed: Cafes, restaurants, shops and businesses have all closed their doors. Even Patio Pizza is closed. Again, the familiar line: 'Due to technical reasons'.

An hour and a half ago Emily and I stood in the centre of Minsk. We watched as people made their way to the central square, in freezing temperatures, as snow fell overhead and an icy wind blew.

Sadly, there just aren't enough people.

Change came to the Ukraine because hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets and refused to go home. Here in Belarus there are perhaps a few thousand people gathering in Minsk tonight.

There is one simple reason for this: People are scared.

During the past weeks, President Lukashenko, former farmer, and the man who has been in power for over a decade, has been been making regular appearances on state controlled television.

Each time he grows angrier and angrier. He has warned that the opposition are planning a bombing campaign. A few days ago rumours of a coup surfaced and he promised to 'break the neck' of anyone who tried to overthrow him.

Even the police and the mysterious but very real KGB, who are everywhere in Minsk today, watching silently behind the blacked-out windows of their 4x4s, have warned that anyone who travels to the centre of Minsk tonight can expect to be treated like a terrorist.

With all of this going on, there is very little prospect of change, and the bravery of the people who have made the journey to the centre of the capital today should not go unmentioned.

It's worth bearing in mind that just insulting the President, even in jest, is a criminal offence punishable by up to two years in jail.

Indeed, earlier today when I called Lukashenko a bastard, as I stood next to two policemen, I could have found myself travelling on one of those Soviet buses with their blacked-out windows.

After the Rose Revolution in Georgia and the Orange Revolution in the Ukraine, there is perhaps some expectation, especially amongst those Western countries who have an interest in Belarus, that now will be a time for change here too.

But they underestimate just how passive the Belarussian people can be. And they do not understand that in this country where there is much nostalgia for the Soviet Union, there is genuine support for Lukashenko amongst elderly, rural citizens.

Perhaps there will be some violence in Minsk tonight, perhaps some protestors will be roughed up, many will be jailed, perhaps some even killed, but there is little prospect for change.

And perhaps in itself that is not such a bad thing.

If change means another American-style colony full of McDonalds, KFC and Burger King, then perhaps the Belarussian people are better off with Lukashenko.

There is no doubt that Lukashenko is a monster. He has been described as 'the last dictator in Europe.' But the American man who used those words is himself a monster, responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent Iraqi men, women and children.

If change means joining the European Union or turning to the United States, then the Belarussians are better off with Lukashenko.

Ultimately, however, it should be up to the Belarussian people to decide their fate. With this is mind, I hope that I am wrong about revolution not coming to Belarus tonight, but I doubt that I am.

As the snow continues to fall on the streets of Minsk and an icy wind continues to blow, I am glad to have been here in this giant Soviet time capsule on what is an important day for the people of Belarus.

These simple and peace-loving people have given me much. Along with the Spanish, they are the finest in Europe. I owe them a debt.

Being here today has been another interesting experience in Belarus to add to my collection of interesting experiences from Belarus.

I watched today as Emily cast her vote at a local school, hoping it would make a difference, knowing it never could, in an election that is neither free not fair.

I watched as protestors gathered in the centre of Minsk in the vain hope that tonight would be the night that history was made. I watched the KGB as they silently watched the protestors.

I watched the snow fall.

Now it's time to say goodbye to this Internet cafe, which brings me news of the nasty world outside of these borders, and time to return to Emily and the simple goodness of the Belarussian people.

This is an Englishman in Minsk, for the fifteenth time, signing off.

Goodbye from Belarus...for now.