Bosh Decision Time For Colangelo Is Looming

 By RaptorTalk

The Raptors are getting close to having to make some very important decisions regarding the path they follow with Chris Bosh.

Within the next three weeks, Bryan Colangelo needs to decide if he trades Bosh for the best package available or if he chooses to hold on to Bosh and offer him a max deal in 2010. Of course, we all know that Bosh will not stay in Toronto for anything other than max money – 6 years/ $130 million.

While my personal preference would be to flip Bosh for a package of younger players and/or draft picks – let’s assume Bryan is leaning towards keep Bosh long term.    
                                                                                                                                   
                     

Is MLSE willing to be a big luxury tax payor?

Here is the key issue he needs to consider and he most certainly must make the MLSE Board aware of.

Whether signing Bosh to a max deal is either good for the franchise or detrimental to the franchise is predicated specifically on what MLSE's plans are regarding the luxury tax.

If the Raptors are willing to become a luxury tax team in the next year or two, then signing Bosh to a max deal may be considered a good decision.

If the Raptors are not willing to become a luxury tax team in the next year or two, then signing Bosh to a max deal is a very bad decision.

Rewarding Chris Bosh with a deal without the organization being willing to become a tax team is very risky. Unless the Raps hit lightning in a bottle with their draft picks and off season moves, it is unlikely they will ever assemble enough good parts around Bosh to win.

Despite glimpses of greatness, Chris Bosh is simply not as good as the small handful of superstar players who are in fact deserving of max deals like Lebron, Duncan, Kobe, Dwight, Chris Paul and D. Wade. CB4 is just not as talented or as dominant, nor will he ever be. And in what is becoming a guard dominant league, his impact is less significant than it might have been earlier.

The real financial straight jacket will be felt by the Raptors in the latter half of his max deal, when Chris is earning well in excess of $20 million per year.  Colangelo needs understand that over the longer term Bosh's bad knees may limit his effectiveness. This could be eerily similar to Jermaine O'Neal - who provides a good comparison as to what a Bosh deal may look like down the road should his knees get worse and his on-court effectiveness drops.

It's a risky move

Don't get me wrong, Bosh is a very, very good player. But signing him to a max deal without stepping into luxury tax territority in order to put a strong supporting cast around him is a very risky manoeuver.

History has proven that over the long term it is not smart decision to pay max money to a second tier elite player – which is where Chris is. The list of max money players this year included names like Steve Francis, Stephan Marbury and Jermaine O'Neal. In their day they were good, but not good enough. In hindsight, all look like very bad deals.

With a new CBA on the horizon, a cap that will likely drop and the lessons learned from max deals being paid to second tier players like Alan Houston and Jalen Rose – Bryan needs to know that if he locks up Bosh for big dollars, MLSE has no choice but to become a significant luxury tax payor if they ever hope to go deep in the playoffs.

In today's salary cap world only a top ten player is worth max money and even then I think that may be too many. When you look at it realistically, Bosh is not a top ten player - even though awhile back I felt he may have been. Arguably Bosh is behind Lebron, Kobe, Wade, Dwight, Duncan, Chris Paul, Pierce, Garnett, Dirk, Parker, Carmelo and Yao.

That's twelve players right there who are likely better than Bosh and of that list, I would only pay max money to five of them. And this is not just a Bosh issue. I wouldn't pay max money to Carmelo Anthony either - another solid second tier elite player.

No doubt, the next thirty days will be very intriguing for all Raptors fans. And it all revolves around the decisions Bryan Colangelo makes about CB4.