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Why the contracts of Deng and Granger appear toxic

By kcchiefsfanatic on | From mvn.com

Answering my critics

As promised, I have attempted to answer the well-reasoned criticisms written in the comment section of my "10 most toxic NBA contracts" post.

The best rebuttals involved my inclusion on the list of two small forwards who, to be honest, barely made the list: Luol Deng of the Chicago Bulls and Danny Granger of the Indiana Pacers.

I'll take each player one at a time.

Luol Deng

Click here to view Luol Deng's Win Resume

Luol Deng is set to be paid between $10 million and $14.3 million over the next four seasons. While the commenter who questioned why Deng was on the toxic list correctly pointed out that Deng has been an above average win producer every season of his career, Deng made the list because his win production appears to be moving in the opposite direction of his salary.

I like Luol Deng as a player, but not at the prices Chicago is paying him. As his Win Resume shows, he has offered only one season that would justify paying him a ten figure salary, and that particular season happened three years ago. Since then Deng's production along with his minutes have declined sharply.

In the last two seasons, Deng's production has regressed from superstar level (in 2006-07) back down to that of a slightly above average NBA SF.

In 2006-07, Deng was spectacuular. He produced approximately 5.5 more wins than the median NBA SF would have produced in the same amount of playing time. Then in 2007-08, I think he got hurt. Anyway, his production slid to just 0.8 wins above the median. Then last season he repeated his disappointing numbers, once again producing only 0.8 wins above the number of wins the Bulls could have gotten from a median SF. If he does the same this season, the Bulls would have to pay him $8.2 million per win above the median (I use the median player as my marker rather than the average player because the "average" NBA player at any position is a deceptive concept). That's way, way too much.

A decent price per win above the median is somewhere in the $2.6 - $2.8 million range. If Deng could get back to his 2006-07 production level, his contract would not be toxic. But his Win Resume suggests he is moving in the opposite direction.

Danny Granger

Click Here to view Danny Granger's Win Resume

Danny Granger's contract is similar to Luol Deng's only a bit more modest. Unlike Deng, however, Granger has never shown the capacity to produce double digit wins for the Pacers. But, at least his production and playing time are trending in the right direction (if you are a Pacer fan). Last season was Granger's best season by far.

Last season Granger produced 1.8 wins above the median SF/PF. If he does the same this season, the Pacers would pay him about $3.4 million per win above the median. Not a terrible price. But, there are two problems moving forward.

One, Indiana is gambling that Granger will produce wins from here on out at last season's rate, rather than at the lower win rate he showed in his first three seasons. Two, his contract salary escalates every season, so Indiana's end of the bargain becomes worse and worse unless Granger's production continually escalates. That might happen. But the odds are it won't.

Restating my original argument

I think some missed the point I was trying to make in my "toxic contracts" post. I wasn't suggesting the players who were the promisees on the toxic contracts necessarily sucked. I was suggesting that because the NBA is probably moving into an era of annually diminishing salary caps, I wouldn't want to be holding any long term deal that involved ten figure payments to any one player unless that player was (a) a decent starting center (because of the steep replacement cost at that position); or, (b) a proven well above the median win producer.