David Paterson’s Gay Marriage Gamble

With his approval ratings stuck somewhere between Dick Cheney and botulism, New York Governor David Paterson is staking it all on the line with a push this week to have the New York State Senate address the issue of marriage equality. Paterson has placed a gay marriage vote before state senators, scheduled for tomorrow, that could make New York the next state to recognize marriage equality.

Paterson himself said that he was inspired by the Maine vote last week, which rescinded marriage rights for same-sex couples in that state.

"I think that the public referendum in Maine should inspire us that there's more work to do, more persuasion to be made, more understanding to be reached, and more sensitivity to be displayed, and those of us who have been a catalyst for marriage equality have to regroup and work harder," Paterson said, in an interview with Corey Johnson and Andy Towle.

Negotiations are expected to go into the wee hours of the night tonight as Democratic lawmakers decide whether to push for a vote or not. Advocates estimate that they have 25 votes to support marriage equality. They need about six more to ensure that the marriage equality bill can pass.

Oh, and one great thing about New York: they don't have a referendum process, meaning that anti-gay activists and the Catholic Church can't put the question of civil rights for gays and lesbians on a ballot. All the more reason why tomorrow's vote will be historic if it happens.

Gov. Paterson launched his re-election campaign last week despite approval ratings that show him facing a tough campaign path ahead. It's pretty clear that he's prioritizing marriage equality as a chance to help bolster his approval numbers, and jump start his re-election campaign. Can it work?

Perhaps, at least according to some gay rights advocates.

"The stakes are much higher now, following Maine, and it would be an enormous boost to the movement to prevail in New York," gay rights activist Matt Foreman told NBC news in New York.

Nationally, it would also help bolster a marriage equality movement that has seen two bruising defeats at the ballot box in the past year -- Maine and California. If Paterson can get this vote done, even if it's razor thin, he will emerge as a national hero for LGBT rights.

What Nancy Pelosi did for health care this weekend, Paterson will have done for advocates of same-sex marriage. And having that on his resume can only help him in his re-election fight.

(Photo courtesy of www.drum.army.mil)