EF Hutton

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke discusses the impact of the Fed Balance sheet and the task of unwinding when the economy begins to recover, or if inflation begins to rise. It should be obvious from the chart that this will be a daunting task. I guess you could believe in miracles. My guess is that the best strategy is to get a healthy investment in stocks that will benefit from rising inflation . The large volume of reserve balances outstanding must be monitored carefully, as--if not... Read Full Story

It is not unusual for the a severely down sloped market to see a sharp two day contra trend rally. We are seeing that right now in the S and P 500. Savvy short term traders should look to sell any rally into the 740-750 range on Wednesday night or Thursday. It is always a good idea to sell after two days up in a downtrend. Remember to limit your risk. The inside day after the bottom, followed by a hook up does warrant some caution. It is possible that we could see an extension of the rally... Read Full Story

In October, the unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent, the highest rate since April 1983, and nonfarm payroll employment declined by 190,000. Since the start of the recession, payroll employment has fallen by 7.3 million. Job losses have averaged 188,000 over the past 3 months. The employment-population ratio continued to decline in October, falling to 58.5 percent. Since December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 7.3 million. Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email... Read Full Story

In October, the unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent, the highest rate since April 1983, and nonfarm payroll employment declined by 190,000. Since the start of the recession, payroll employment has fallen by 7.3 million. Job losses have averaged 188,000 over the past 3 months. The employment-population ratio continued to decline in October, falling to 58.5 percent. Since December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 7.3 million. Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email Household... Read Full Story

Rumors are starting that a couple of mutual funds are in trouble. I can't confirm or deny at the moment. Earlier this week I wrote about the increase in investors calls to both Vanguard and T. Rowe Price. See Investors pull $33 Billion out of Market. When investors get scared, and they can't take it anymore, they often dump all their stocks. A form of the madness of the crowd--they sometimes do this in unison. Imagine 100,000s of investors all pushing the panice button at the same time... Read Full Story

Gold is a special commodity in that the fundamentals of physical supply and demand are minor influences on its price. Gold’s price is most often driven by speculative demand for a hedge against inflation or economic uncertainty. Many investors see gold as a substitute for fiat currencies. Consequently, gold prices sometimes track changes in central bank holdings of gold. Gold markets largely ignored China’s surprise revelation that it had increased its gold reserves as much of this had... Read Full Story

One thing that is being overlooked in this budget deficit mess is payback. If these TARP loans get paid back the future deficits are likely to be better than is currently being forecast in the market. New bull market down the road? Remember these factors always influence stock market action: Perception Better than expected Consumer and investor confidence Feel free to comment or share you thoughts on this and the budget deficit. Follow EF Hutton on Twitter Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email... Read Full Story

Real average hourly earnings fell 0.1 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the Bureauof Labor Statistics reported today. This decline stemmed from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), up by 0.2 percent, outpacing 0.1 percent growth in average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers. Real average weekly earnings fell 0.4 percent over the month, as a result of the decrease in real average hourly earnings and a... Read Full Story

Ten Year Treasury Daily Yield Chart The ten year Treasury closed at 3.03 on Friday. It looks to me like interest rates are turning up in spite of the FEDs buying of treasuries and mortgage backed securities. This does not bode well for longer dated Treasury securities in the months ahead. Treasury supply is going to rise dramatically and right now there is little demand for the ten year as evidenced by the shape of the yield curve. I expect the ten year to test the critical 3.125 area soon... Read Full Story

Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods, Monthly, Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted The current reading is 161,192 versus 162,482 (in millions). The low reading so far was 159,187 versus the high 219,286. That equals 60,099 millions. I shudder to think what is going to happen if this series makes new lows. Bad news? If you look at the chart we are hanging by a thread. Good news? The worst might be behind us. Subscribe to EF Hutton via Email Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and... Read Full Story