The Inside Skinny on Campaign Cash

At important turning points, we like to pause and look at the whole database of surveys

conducted by Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner – focusing in particular on the

4,000 interviews conducted during the last four months. There are big changes here that have an

enduring quality, with the opportunity to shape the parties’ prospects in 2008.

Right now, the Democrats enjoy an average lead of 12 points in the generic presidential

race (51 to 39 percent) and 9 points in the named congressional ballot (51 to 42 percent). But let

us point to some of the trends underneath that make 2008 look like a very big election.

the ‘core’ group of the most likely voters. Usually, the Republicans cut some of the

margin on Election Day because of turnout patterns, but that is not likely in 2008.

with both well-educated and blue collar voters moving to the Democrats. In the

Congressional ballot, for example, the high school educated give the Democrat an 11-

point lead, dropping to 10 points among those with some high school and 8 points among

the college educated. In short, the rush to be done with the Republicans is turning

America a little classless.

$75,000 – are supporting the Democratic presidential candidate by 11 points (52 to 41

percent). The elites are apparently fed up with the state of the country under George

Bush.

margin, the Republican candidate is only winning the Bush counties by 1 point (46 to

45 percent). The Republican nominee will struggle to come back in the battleground

states. Just as important, a lot of Republican incumbents will be running in supposedly

‘red’ districts and states, but find them evenly divided. The Republican Presidential

candidate is barely ahead among white rural voters (48 to 41 percent).

Iraq by almost the same margin as for voters overall, 50 to 43 percent. Democratic

Congressional candidates who have been prominently trying to change Iraq policy have

an even larger lead, 53 to 42 percent.

Catholics by 13 (51 to 38 percent). This would represent a major change in political

direction. In fact, the Democrat is running marginally ahead among white Catholics who

attend Church every week.

points; Congressionally, by 14 points. It is the crash with independents more than

Republican defections that is driving the Republican vote down.

whites under 30 by 14 points.

Presidential candidate now is losing them by only 2.

Democrats are winning white union households by two-to-one.

for the Democrats this year after swinging strongly for the Republicans in 2004. White

married women are breaking even in the Presidential, and Congressionally, the

Republican candidate is ahead by only 4 points.

comprise a quarter of the electorate. The Democrats are winning them by two to one;

they are winning white unmarried women by over 20 points.

Boiler Plate on Democracy Corp

Democracy Corps is an independent, non-profit organization dedicated to making the government of the United States more responsive to the American people. It is led by James Carville and Stanley Greenberg, who founded Democracy Corps in 1999. Democracy Corps provides free public opinion research and strategic advice to those dedicated to a more responsive Congress and Presidency.

The organization was born out of outrage over the impeachment of President Clinton when the leadership in Congress preferred radical partisanship to addressing the issues which really matter to American families. Following the 2000 election, Democracy Corps rededicated itself after the presidential candidate with the most votes and the most popular policy agenda did not become the President of the United States.