2008-09 NBA Preview: Golden State Warriors

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Golden State Warriors

2007-08 Record: 48-34

Cool 2007 Stat: Baron Davis, Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson were the first trio to each average 20 ppg for the same team since fellow Warriors Chris Mullin, Tim Hardaway and Mitch Ritchmond did it in 1990-91.

Anticipated Starting Five

PG- Monta Ellis (injured to start the season)
SG- Corey Maggette
SF- Stephen Jackson
PF- Al Harrington
C- Andris Biedrins

Key Reserves: Marcus Williams, Kelenna Azubuike, Marco Belinelli, Ronny Turiaf, Brandan Wright

Biggest Strength - Explosive on offense

Pete’s cool 2007 stat says it all.  This team was good at running, putting up a lot of shots and points.  This year won’t be any different.  You simply swap out one 20-point scorer in Baron Davis for another in Corey Maggette.  With their quickness across the board they should be able to force turnovers and score in transition.  But without those easy baskets they will be stuck relying on individuals to create shots for themselves in the half court.  Which leads me to their weakness…

Biggest Weakness - No floor leader

Who is the point guard on this team?  Who is the guy that will identify the hot man and make sure that player gets the rock in positions to score?  As currently constructed this team doesn’t have that guy.  The slated starting lead guard is Monta Ellis.  We all know he is not a point guard and thrives off the ball, looking to score.  Will his role change now that Davis is gone and there is a void at point guard?  I don’t think so.  The first alternative option is Marcus Williams, who I expect to start at point while Ellis is recovering from his mysterious injury.  He has limited experience being stuck behind Jason Kidd and is unproven.  The other option is C.J. Watson, a second-year player with even less experience.  The Golden State Warriors do not have one player with an assist-to-turnover ratio of two or better. To make matters worst they brought in Corey Maggette who has a sub-one assist-to-turnover ratio.  With such poor and/or unwilling passers and no dominant inside presence, this team is going to be playing one-on-one ball every time down court offensively.  They will be fun to watch, but without a floor general, that isn’t going to be good enough to get one of the top 8 spots in the West.

Key Player in ’08 – Monta Ellis

As Dannie said above, the Warriors are without a floor leader, but they are also without a face of the franchise with Davis gone. In the offseason, Ellis was paid like a franchise player, and this year he needs to act like one. So far, with his apparent irresponsible injury, he’s off to a terrible start. But when he comes back, can he make the leap to a superstar level? It might be more likely than you think. Since 2000, 11 players have averaged 20.2 ppg or more (Ellis’ average last year) at 22 or younger, they are: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant and Monta Ellis. The Warriors invested a lot of money hoping his name won’t look out of place on that list for long.

Their Thaddeus (exciting player 22 or under) – Brandan Wright

There are a lot of players that could fall into this category for the Warriors, including Ellis, Andris Biedrins and Anthony Randolph, but Wright is the most intriguing and unproven for me. The only 2 players ranked above him in his high school class were Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. In his freshman year at UNC, the 6′10” forward showed smooth skills around the basket and averaged 15 ppg on 65% shooting. The Warriors thought enough of him that they traded one of their best players for him. But last season, he ended up playing just slightly more minutes than Kevin Ollie did for us. It’ll be interesting to see if he gets a chance to prove himself on the court, or if 2008 draft pick Randolph passes him in the depth chart.

Pete’s 2008 Outlook: 4th place, Pacific division / 12th place, Western conference / 22nd place, NBA

I’ll keep this short. By essentially trading Baron Davis for Corey Maggette, the Warriors went into rebuilding mode. Davis made the team go, just like Nash makes the Suns go. They have a nice young core with Ellis, Biedrins, Randolph and Wright, but these guys are going to have to develop before they find themselves back in the playoffs again.

Dannie’s 2008 Outlook: 4th place, Pacific division / 11th place, Western conference / 21st place, NBA

The Warriors take a step back this season with the loss of Baron Davis.  Right now they are a collection of individuals who are good at getting their own.  Al Harrington seems disgruntled, unhappy with his current role.  The lack of a floor leader to take charge when things aren’t going well really worries me with this team.  Two years ago, they slide into the playoffs with 42 wins and rocked the top seed Mavericks out of the playoffs.  Last year they won 6 more games than the previous season and just missed the playoffs.  This season they won’t even be close in the playoff race.  And I had that thought even before I found out Ellis could be out until December.

Philly Connection: Andris Biedrins

Had Rob Babcock not been one of the worst GM’s in NBA history, Biedrins, not Andre Iguodala, would have been bartering with Ed Stefanski for a contract extension this summer. By many accounts, the Sixers were targeting Josh Childress and Biedrins in their spot, and it appeared Biedrins would be their man after Childress went 6th to the Hawks. However, Babcock took Rafael Araujo over the already slipping Andre Iguodala, and he fell right into the Sixers’ laps. Biedrins was selected by the Warriors and has proven to be a solid pro, averaging 10.5 ppg and 9.8 rpg while shooting an NBA-best 62.6% from the field.