Another Obama TV Performance? This Time, Health Care

Is Obama ready for a deal?  Unnamed senior aide says so to cnn.com.  Obama may be preparing another TV performance again.  We all know everyone in the country is vested in this issue, one way or the other.  The question Obama has to answer is: who else does he need to pull to his side to get this done?  Of course, an interesting question would be: Is he aiming to pass a health care reform? 

A lot of critics have already voiced their opinion (this one and this one) how Obama administration could have handled this debate better, more civilly so that the debate can have more substance. 

Let bygone be bygone.  Obama is only interested at the future anyway.  Which vested party will have a continual interest to fuel more grass root anger?  Not necessarily pharmaceuticals.  PhRMA is not that critical.  It is so uncritical that Republican would rather attack PhRMA’s position on Obama-care. 

As long as Republicans do not sign the legislation, the success or the failure of health care reform will make Republicans the biggest gainer.  In that sense, Republicans are the greatest stakeholder.  If health care reform fails, it certainly is a victory for Republicans.  If health care reform passes, this health care reform will provide ammunition for elections to come. 

Back to the pharmaceuticals, their interest lies in having more profit.  If the health care will expand prospective customers to enlarge their profits, they will be all for it.  In fact, this is how I would understand PhRMA’s website statement (this one and this one). 

Patients are voters.  In fact this issue will motivate a lot of voters, especially seniors.  This is where the upcoming Obama-care speech will be a major source of information.  When Obama will be talking to the voters through the TV box,
1) Who are the interest groups Obama will be talking to behind the text?
2) How is he creating dissent among the opponents?
3) Is he blaming someone else for the fear raised in the town hall meetings? Or is he explaining his position to overcome the fears?
4) Does he show a sense of prioritized items in this legislation?
5) Is he setting up an epic failure to harden his core support and lend a focus on something else?

Whatever position Obama will choose by then, he ultimate will re-structure the health insurance market, and possibly more than just the health insurance market.  Does anyone remember the last time a piece of legislation that affects the society in such scale?  It was the credit market.  Not anything caused by the 2008 credit crisis.  It was actually Equal Credit Opportunity Act enacted in 1974.  How long was that legislation? 8 pages.  How long is the current the congress is discussing?  >1000 pages.   Once it becomes clear what this health care reform beast looks like, it will become clear what kind of a world Cigna, Aetna (NYSE:AET), Humana (NYSE:HUM), UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) Blue Cross Blue Shield (http://bcbs.com) will have to live with.  Some will grow and some will shrink.  This is how political risk affects regulation risks.

Obama, in my opinion, is a pro-civil servant president, a contrarian position of Benjamin Franklin, if you remember Franklin’s Dangers of Salaried Bureaucracy.  Obama also enjoys eloquence argument (eloquent is not succinct).  Having a short legislation is easier to make it eloquent.  Of course, this is not a critical factor.  However, being short definitely makes it easier for the salesmen (congressmen). 

If Geithner will have to do financial sector regulatory reform, Obama can actually break this health care reform in pieces, in Federal Trade Commision, Department of Treasury, medicare and social security reform.  If Obama can be stealthier about this reform, he can accomplish more than anyone can conceive.

The cost to the society is high for this prolonged battle, may Obama be victorious or not.  Even Gore’s election loss did not generate such a polarized conflict over such a long period of time.  The last time an event generated such political energy was probably the 60’s.  If we employ this kind of analogy, then is this conflict between eggheads and the rest of society or is this a conflict between generations? Or is this a continuation conflict of the racial haves and have nots from the 60’s?