NL Central’s wild first half finish starts with Cubs-Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs will begin a four game set tonight at Wrigley Field with the Cubs will looking to gain some ground on the division leading Brewers and Milwaukee trying to push Chicago further back in the standings. Currently the Cubs sit 3.5 games behind in the Central, trailing not only the Brewers, but the Cardinals and Reds as well.

The Cubs hope a return to Wrigley is what they need to wake some slumbering bats and put a 3-7 road trip behind them. But they may get more than they bargain for in a Milwaukee team that has played better on the road than they have at home.

The Brewers currently stand 2 games over .500 on the road, compared to four over at home, but it is some of the bats in their lineup that once out of the Brew City, two in particular, tend to catch fire. Take a look at the home and away splits for Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.

Ryan Braun clearly hits well outside of Miller Park, and Prince Fielder has hit very well at Wrigley in his career. Since 2006 Prince is a .301 hitter with nine home runs and 23 RBI at the Friendly Confines. Braun in that same span has hit .348 with two homers and 16 RBI. The Cubs can not let these two beat them, easier said than done.

On the flip side the Cubs have hit better, not great, at home. As a team they are hitting .258 at home, which sounds mediocre, and it is, until you look at their road split. On the road this Cub team hits .235.

On the mound the Brewers have had their struggles away from Miller Park. As a staff they have a 5.01 ERA in 38 games, and opponents are hitting .270 against them. At home that ERA drops to 3.89.

The Cubs conversely have pitched very well at home, posting a 3.87 ERA in 34 games and have won 21 of  34 at Wrigley. Opponents are hitting just .243 against them there. For tonight’s starter Ryan Dempster, who has been a tad inconsistent this season and hasn’t won since May 30th (despite a 3.23 ERA in June) at home against the Dodgers, the home field advantage has been minimal:

Seth McClung will get the start tonight for the second time this season. In his first outing against the Giants he lasted four innings, giving up three earned runs.

The Cubs will have to keep the Brewers big bats under control and limit the runs they put up on the board. If they try to bang with this team they will come up on the short end. Geovany Soto (.304 last seven days), Jake Fox (.333 last seven) and the usual suspects will have to wake up quickly. If the pitching falters, this could be a long series.

The Brewers need those bats, particularly Braun and Fielder, to stay hot on the road. J.J. Hardy, hitting .345 with two home runs in the last seven days, will have to keep his bat going as well.

This weekend should provide lots of fireworks (so lame) as we see a strong pitching staff match up with one the top offenses in the National League. I’m not sure who to give the edge to just yet. If the Cubs come out strong versus McClung, I will like their chances the rest of the way. If they come out flat tonight, the Brewers might just bury this team by Monday.