Calculations For Those Who Doubt Cake

Make sure to use signup code jhub for 33% rakeback when signing up for Cake Poker. There's also a 100% deposit bonus up to $500.

For those that haven't yet, read the previous post before reading this. Otherwise you won't know what I'm talking about. The link to it can be found here:

http://jhub3000.livejournal.com/2008/04/17/

Ok, some of you seem to think I'm an idiot & haven't thought everything through here. Let me show you that I'm not an idiot.

First, let's see how much rakeback a supernova elite player earns.

For an example, we'll use a player w/ an average stake of $180 who plays 8 tables at a time on Pokerstars. We'll assume he uses his FPPs on the $1,500 bonus for 100,000 FPPs since it's a cash equivalent & rakeback is paid in cash on Cake.
That means he pays an average of $12.18 in rake per game
That's 60.9 VPPs per game
We'll assume this player plays 40 hours per week for 44 weeks during the year. He takes off 4 weeks the 1st half of the year & 4 weeks the 2nd half of the year. We'll also assume he's already supernova elite, so as long as he gets 50K VPP per month, his elite status doesn't expire til the end of June.
If he's 8 tabling, he should get in about 11.2 games per hr (8 x 1.4). He'll play about 19,712 games per year.
He'll average 682.08 VPPs per hr.
That's 1,200,460 VPPs in a year
He'll make 600,230.40 VPPs each half of the year
He'll make 3,001,152 FPPs the 1st half of the year since he'll have his elite status
He'll make 1,399,193 FPPs on his journey from 600,230 VPPs to 1 million VPPs since he'll only be supernova during this time
He'll make 1,002,300 FPPs the rest of the year
That means he'll make 5,402,645 FPPs the entire year.
He'll get $28K in milestone bonuses for 300K FPPs.
That means he can purchase 51 $1,500 bonuses w/ the rest of his FPPs for a total of $76,500.
That's a total of $104,500 in bonuses.
For his supernova elite tournament packages we'll assume he play the WSOP Main Event,EPT Monte Carlo & WCOOP Main Event. We'll assume his long run ROI is 50% in both of these events.
He'll make $15K per tournament the WSOP, $24K in the Monte Carlo & $3,900 in the WCOOP.
That's $42,900 in total tournament value.
$42,900 + $104,500 = $147,400 in total rakeback
$147,400 / 19,712 games = $7.48 per game total rakeback

Now let's look at Cake Poker. We'll assume an average stake of $130.
At 33% you'll get $3.33 in rakeback per game
$7.48 - $3.33 = $4.15 more in average profit on Cake needed to make up rakeback difference.

Now let's look at the 2007 stats of the supernova elites from 2007 who primarily played SNGs:

Username Games Played Av. Profit Av. Stake Av. ROI Total Profit Form Network Filter
bigjoe2003 13,857 $7 $304 3% $103,068 - PokerStars Year2007 x
BrynKenney 6,923 $1 $534 2% $4,133 Tilt PokerStars Year2007 x
Comma_D 16,474 $6 $152 4% $97,076 - PokerStars Year2007 x
DDBeast 16,128 $5 $183 4% $85,413 - PokerStars Year2007 x
deut23-10 14,726 $2 $159 2% $34,861 - PokerStars Year2007 x
jhub3000 28,775 $5 $133 5% $147,852 - PokerStars Year2007 x
Jorj95 10,202 $2 $227 1% $18,922 Super Tilt PokerStars Year2007 x
River Prayer 12,942 $1 $281 2% $18,694 - PokerStars Year2007 x
scossett 16,464 $2 $143 2% $37,948 Super Tilt PokerStars Year2007

Without going through the complications of factoring in which players have bigger sample sizes, the average profit per player is $3.44. While 4 players have an average stake significantly above the $180 I used for the example, one is right there at $183, and 4 others have an average stake below $180. Also, in my opinion, the games are tougher in 08 than they were in 07, primarily because more people are going for supernova elite this year. However, for simplicity, I won't factor this in.

If we take $3.44 per game + $7.48 in rakeback, we get a total of $10.92 per game average for a supernova elite player.

Now, let's look at Cake. Here's my stats on Cake so far:

Username Games Played Av. Profit Av. Stake Av. ROI Total Profit Form Network Filter
jhub3000 3,313 $18 $120 15% $59,616 - Cake

I haven't once used table selection on Cake & I used some table selection on Stars both this year and last year. However, for simplicity, we won't consider this.

After 3,000 games you have a 90% chance of being within 5% of your true ROI. This means my true ROI is likely somewhere between 10 & 20%.

10% ROI = $12 avg. profit + $3.33 rakeback = $15.33 total per game
15% ROI = $18 avg. profit + $3.33 rakeback = $21.33 total per game
20% ROI = $24 avg. profit + $3.33 rakeback = $27.33 total per game

Ok, maybe you aren't as good as me. Maybe you could get an 8% ROI.

8% ROI = $10.40 avg. profit + $3.33 rakeback = $13.73 total per game

Maybe your standard ROI is 8% but I'm in most of your games. If you remember my post a while back on table selection, you know that a top player drops your ROI roughly 2%, assuming all other factors equal.

6% ROI = $7.80 per game + $3.33 = $11.13 per game

So there you have it, even for a supernova elite with an average stake of $180 on Pokerstars, it would be more profitable to play on Cake with an average stake of $130 as long as his ROI on Cake is at least 6% or higher (I can assure you that every one of these supernova elites could sustain this ROI on Cake).

Clearly many people overvalue supernova elite and don't realize that their average profit before rakeback is going to be pretty low, due to the mass volume you must put in & the other players trying to do the same on Pokerstars, therefore making the games very tough.

There clearly isn't a SNG player on the planet who wouldn't benefit by at the very least, mixing in Cake and using table selection between 2 sites.

If it's more profitable for supernova elites to play on Cake, then I shouldn't even have to explain how much more profitable it is for those who aren't supernova elite.

Also, for those interested, Cake is adding new payment processors within the next month.

Here is the time frame from for the new cashier options:

- QuickTender is live
- enhanced credit card capabililty (close to 100% acceptance): within a few days
- eWalletXpress: next week
- MoneyGram / Western Union: 7-10 days
- EFT (withdrawals in 10 days, deposits in 4 weeks)