A New Strategy That Will Hurt Obama?

Will affirmative action be the new gay marriage? From Seth Walls:

The next test of Barack Obama's "postracial" persona may come from some unlikely places: Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma. That's where Ward Connerly, the country's most innovative and successful opponent of affirmative action over the past decade, is launching an effort to get an initiative on the ballots that would prohibit public institutions from considering race, sex or ethnicity in areas such as hiring and college admissions...

Obama has yet to take a definitive public stance on affirmative action in this campaign, but he did voice a radio ad in opposition to Connerly's successful 2006 campaign in Michigan. Darren Davis, a professor of political science at Notre Dame, calls the emerging Connerly question "one of the most profound" of Obama's campaign--especially in the wake of the controversy over his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright. "Basically, on every racial issue Barack Obama is walking the tightrope," Davis says. "The more he supports traditional black issues like affirmative action, the more that will eat into his white base of support" ...

Connerly says the strength of Obama's candidacy only highlights why affirmative action is no longer relevant. "How can you have a self-identified black man running for the highest office for the land [while] defending preferences based on race?" Connerly asks. "It reinforces the logic of our initiatives."

Could affirmative action become the big ballot initiative that drives conservatives to the polls? Will it be difficult for Obama to walk this "tightrope"?  What do you think?