When This Investor Speaks Buffett Jumps

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
June 10, 2008

“That is as strong a bull recommendation as I’ve ever seen from Charlie,” legendary investor Warren Buffett told the crowd.

“I’m going to look into those stocks immediately after this meeting.”

DailyWealth’s own Tom Dyson heard the conversation firsthand. He was in Omaha last month, at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting.

Warren Buffett, of course, is the most famous investor ever. But Charlie? When he speaks, Buffett jumps… Who is this guy?

It’s billionaire Charlie Munger, Buffett’s sole investing partner at Berkshire Hathaway. Here’s what he said…

According to Tom Dyson’s notes, a reporter asked Charlie how he felt about regional banks. Charlie replied, “For somebody who’s very diligent, you’ve identified a prospecting territory that has some promise… The questioner is on to something.”

That’s when Buffett told the crowd it was the most bullish recommendation he’d ever heard from Charlie.

So let’s get this straight… The mainstream media tells us commodities are going to the moon, and it’s the end of the world for banks. Meanwhile Charlie Munger, Buffett’s investing partner, sees “promise” in regional-bank stocks. Who should you believe?

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Richard Pzena believes Charlie. Pzena is a world-class money manager. In one of his quarterly letters, he put together a nifty chart… It compares bank stocks with shares of commodities companies.

If you were smart, and you followed this chart, you would have sold your bank stocks a few years ago, when this ratio bottomed, and bought shares of commodities companies. You would have absolutely made a fortune.

But now, the chart is telling us the opposite… It’s telling us banks are cheaper relative to commodity shares than they’ve been at any time in the last 50 years. You can say it the opposite way as well… Commodity shares are more overvalued relative to financial stocks than at any time in the last 50 years.

Just a couple years ago, the right trade was to buy commodities and sell banks. But what about now?

If the chart is right… if Pzena is right (and he’s made a huge bet on it)… and if Munger is right… you could make a whole lot of money in regional banks over the next few years.

The tough part is knowing the right time to put on the trade. The trend has not been your friend so far. Bank stocks have been falling. And unfortunately, I have been early on this one.

Investing Secrets Over Dinner with a Career Banker Insider’s Take: Time to Buy These Tiny Stocks?

But I think it will turn out to be a mega trade… one where you make a few times your money. So there is no urgency… The right way to do it is to wait for the uptrend to be in place. It’s no big deal to miss the first 20% of a few-hundred-percent rally in order to lower your risk.

We’re not there yet. But you ought to set some chips aside. Get on it when the time is right… when the uptrend returns. It should be worth a few hundred percent for Charlie Munger… and you.

Good investing,

Steve

Free advice is often worth what you pay for it. But we try to point DailyWealth readers in the right direction. In this case, the direction was good for 145% gains in just over a year.

Of course, every bull market needs a breather… The bellwether of oil services “breathed in” and suffered a decline early this year. Now however, NOV is “breathing out” and going on to new all-time highs.

As long as oil remains north of $100, Exxon, Chevron, and every other “on” will go to the ends of the Earth to find new oil… which will stuff the order books of the oil-services industry and keep these stocks headed in the right direction.