All about EUR-USD.

First trade, the one mentioned previously, was swiftly stooped out for 52 pips loss. Next day EUR-USD made new all time high and I shorted it. Strong resistance was expected above 1.6000. On top of that GBP-USD behavior gave me some clues here, looked like short term topping move. In all honesty, though, I was a little hesitant to really commit myself here. I mean, the pair is at all time high, can easily run against me 150-200 pips in couple of hours. So my position was small, just to test the waters. Trade made 89 pips, but like I said, not much money. A confidence builder, of sorts. Next day I placed a "money trade"- large size, relative to account size. Result was good, + 77 pips. I placed one more "money trade" after that, but as you can see, price action faltered and I got out with a loss of 31 pips. In current environment, I don't want find myself on a wrong side of any opening gap on Sunday. Besides, I can always get back in the market. Despite the fact that my trades were pips positive, real account gain was minimal, due to varied size of trades. Still ahead, though.
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This market behavior indicates a great deal of confusion and indecision. EUR-USD is at some important junction. There is a deluge of important financial news coming out around the clock these days, and they just add to confusion for most people. I'm going to take a look at charts only and try to disregard fundamentals for the purpose of this post.

Weekly chart of EUR-USD shows market setting up another bullish move. Historically, third "base", in a prolonged one sided price run, has a high probability of failure. This hasn't been decided yet, as there can be yet another run on highs. We can see details better on daily chart.

Market made a new high and retracted a little bit. I think it will move a little lower and then enter a "critical area" which will give us longer term clues. Should the price move up from here, bullish trend is basically in place. If the price gets under 1.5600, continuation lower is likely. Between 1.5600 and 1.5700 I will be switching to 4H charts for indication of future direction.
Here is what I'm doing in the meantime. Remember, I have a bearish bias

Last 2 trading days created a congestion zone, clear sign that market is waiting for news and traders are very uncertain. I want to see a breakout to the down side from it. Sell order was placed at 1.5780 for a possible run to 1.5700-1.5690. Depending on how market opens on Sunday, I will likely place smaller trade in the same direction.
Now, that was exhausting.
Husar.