Sizing Up the SEC: Part III
Last summer, with a new college football season on the horizon as we headed into late July, the very week before fall camp opened, I wrote an article summing up the two most over-rated programs inside the BCS era.
Michigan certainly qualified, as Wolverine Nation quickly tired of a Lloyd Carr era fittingly described as the under-achieving all-stars. Tennessee was the other team that earned the dubious and dreaded under-achieving tab, and if the restlessness and ill contempt on display inside Vol Nation is any indicator, I was certainly justified with my opinion.
EDSBS has repeatedly placed coach Phillip Fulmers under-achieving all stars in the Top-10 for their criminal disposition and dishonorable sensibilities, and combined with their offensive history of ineptitude without Offensive Coordinator David Cutcliff (the new coach at Duke) at the helm of the ship, things could get a bit dicey this season. Coach Fulmer had better win the SEC outright, or at least drop another couple million on a campus library project if he expects to stay in the good graces of Vol Nation.
Despite what every pundit around the country says regarding the SEC (it is the juggernaut of all juggernauts of a conference), the numbers DO NOT back up the hype surrounding this conference. But then again, the administrative heads who were connected to the College Football Association figured out long ago that logical indicators like statistical analysis can be over-looked and performance tress-passes can be forgiven in the eyes of the media, which influences the national pollsters.
Tennessee is 93-34 inside the BCS era, specifically within Fulmers watch, but what stands out in my mind is that Tennessee is always given the benefit of the doubt in the eyes of the pollsters and the national media, especially considering their record against programs who have accomplished elite status (9 wins or more in a given season) has been a complete failure given Tennessees lofty projections year in and year out.
Their Quality Opponent Factor Rating is 18-23, five games below .500 and when considering all the teams they have competed against who have gone on to win at least seven games or more, they are 10 games over .500 (42-32).
Not exactly elite is it? Yet when you talk to even the most competent football fans around the country, they will quickly tell you that Tennessee is certainly elite, especially given the fact that they have won over 10 games a season, five times during the BCS decade, have won at least 9 games twice, have had two 8 win seasons as well, with only have one losing season (5-6 in 2005) out of the last ten on the docket.
So I must be out of my mind when tagging Volunteer Nation as over-rated, right? Not so fast my friends! The Volunteers are 51-2 when playing the Tier-4 programs who have gone on to record losing seasons, with most of the carnage coming from C-USA and the Sun-Belt. If you take that sterling 51-2 record out of the overall record of 93-34, the football Goliath from the Smokey Mountains becomes mortal in a hurry (42-34), a mere 8 games above the marginal .500 mark.
Record QOF vs Winner vs Loser
(2007) 10-4 2-2 6-4 4-0 (0)
(2006) 9-4 2-4 4-4 5-0 (0)
(2005) 5-6 1-4 2-5 3-1 (0)
(2004) 10-3 1-2 4-2 6-1 (0)
(2003) 10-3 2-2 4-3 6-0 (0)
(2002) 8-5 1-4 2-5 6-0 (0)
(2001) 11-2 4-1 7-2 4-0 (0)
(2000) 8-4 0-2 2-4 6-0 (0)
(1999) 9-3 1-2 3-3 6-0 (0)
(1998) 13-0 4-0 8-0 5-0 (0)
TOTALS TOTALS TOTALS TOTALS
93-34 18-23 42-32 51-2
In Tennessees defense, I recognize that they are the only school in the SEC who has not jumped on the Division I-AA scheduling bandwagon in the last 10 years as they have not scheduled a single program from this division during the BCS era. But their BCS record against opponents outside of the mighty (over-rated as well) SEC Conference is a mere 11-9, which doesnt exactly project the superiority that SEC headquarters, who works together with the national media, tries to cultivate.
Throw in the fact that they are a combined 25-23 against the Top-6 teams in the SEC during the same BCS era (1998 - 2008), along with the fact that they only have two seasons out of ten where their record against the elite and winning programs has been respectable, and you get a completely different portrait describing a program that is sliding quickly out of the elite and into mediocrity.
2001
11-2 Overall Record.
4-1 QOF-Factor Rating.
7-2 versus teams with winning records.
4-0 versus teams with losing records.
1998 (BCS National Championship Season)
13-0 Overall Record.
4-0 QOF-Factor Rating.
8-0 versus teams with winning records.
5-0 versus teams with losing records.
Still not convinced that not only Tennessee but the entire SEC benefits from the system a little more than they should? Consider that Tennessee does not have a winning record (13-18) against any of the Top-4 programs inside the BCS era within the SEC (Georgia, Florida, LSU and Auburn), and only when including mediocre programs like Arkansas and Alabama does it rise above the .500 mark. There are essentially two programs in the ENTIRE SEC that are elite...Florida and LSU given the records and accomplishments throughout the BCS era, as most of the hype surrounding this conference derives from the rich history and tradition these programs obtained back inside the early days of the CFA era.
5 - 5
4 - 6
2 - 4
2 - 3
5 - 2
7 - 3
2 - 0
9 - 1
4 - 0
10. 10 - 1
11. 9 - 1
SEC Totals vs Top 6 vs Bottom 5
59 - 26 25 - 23 34 - 3
The SEC Conference doesnt limit their marketing prowess with the networks specifically to the sport of football as well. On numerous occasions, found both in the blogsphere and in the mainstream media, you will quickly hear in voice or witness in print the mantra The Best Conference in the Country, when describing the SEC Baseball teams.
As a former All-PAC-10 baseball player at Oregon State University, and one who also coaches at Willamette University (Division III) in Salem (Ore), I have many close friends, colleagues and associates in Division I sports on the west coast who would sing a similar tune. The SEC is all about the self-fulfilling hype as they will earn as many as nine regional baseball bids per season, and yet where are these teams when Omaha rolls around? Within the era of the BCS, the SEC (other than LSUs four year run) has been a no show in the finals of the College World Series, but when the SEC tournament rolls around in Hoover (Ala) this spring, you can bet you will see this hyperbole statement in bright bold print, either inside the dugout or on the outfield walls: The SEC - The Greatest Conference in the Land.
As you will soon see, the greatest conference in the land, who will likely get at least 9 regional baseball bids this spring, will get the bulk of their victories outside of the conference against the likes of Wright State, Siena, Duquesne, Troy, Davidson, East Tennessee State or Furman, while the teams along the west coast will cannibalize each other (San Diego, San Diego State, Fresno State, Cal-Poly, Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount, UC-Irvine, Cal-Fullerton, Santa Barbara, Long Beach State and the entire PAC-10 Conference), just like during the PAC-10 football campaign.
Thus far this season, here are the results between the SEC programs and the Top programs on the west coast in terms of strength of schedule and results:
SEC Conference vs West Coast Baseball Comparison:
Tennessee: (7-4)
Morehead State (2-1)
Furman (1-0)
Texas (1-0)
Texas Tech (0-1)
Oklahoma (0-1)
James Madison (0-1)
Eastern Michigan (3-0)
Oregon State: (6-5)
Vanderbilt (0-1)
Miami (OH) (1-0)
ASU (0-1)
Georgia (2-1)
Portland (1-0)
Loyola-Marymount (0-1)
San Diego (0-1)
Santa Clara (1-0)
SDSU (1-0)
Alabama: (7-4)
Cal-Poly (1-2)
Tex-Arlington (0-2)
Nevada (1-0)
Dallas Baptist (1-0)
Troy (1-1)
Youngstown State (3-0)
Stanford: (9-4)
Nebraska (2-1)
St. Marys (0-1)
Nevada (1-0)
Cal-State-Fullerton (3-0)
CAL (0-1)
Texas (2-1)
Auburn: (10-4)
East Tennessee State (4-0)
Florida State (0-4)
Davidson (2-0)
VMI (4-0)
USC: (9-4)
Florida-Int (3-0)
SDSU (0-1)
UC-Irvine (0-1)
Bethune Cookman (1-0)
Southern (1-0)
UCLA (0-1)
Pepperdine (1-1)
Winthrop (3-0)
Arkansas: (11-1)
Wright State (3-0)
Kansas (1-0)
LA-Tech (1-0)
Texas A&M (0-1)
Ohio State (1-0)
South Dakota State (2-0)
Siena (3-0)
Washington State: (10-2)
Creighton (2-1)
UNLV (2-0)
Wright State (3-0)
Kent State (3-1)
Kentucky: (13-0)
Xavier (1-0)
Fairfield (1-0)
South Alabama (1-0)
Oakland (2-0)
Butler (4-0)
Evansville (1-0)
Purdue (3-0)
California: (9-1-1)
K-State (1-0)
Utah Valley St (1-0-1)
Fresno State (1-0)
Missouri (0-1)
SDSU (1-0)
San Diego (1-0)
Stanford (1-0)
Northern Iowa (1-0)
Minnesota (1-0)
New Mexico (1-0)
UCLA: (7-4)
Oklahoma (1-1)
UC Santa Barbara (1-0)
Southern (1-0)
Bethune Cookman (1-0)
USC (1-0)
Cal-State-Fullerton (0-2)
St. Marys (2-1)
LSU: (11-2)
Indiana (2-1)
Southern (1-0)
Miss Valley St (1-0)
Duquesne (3-0)
Michigan State (2-0)
Stetson (2-1)
ASU: (12-0)
Miami (OH) (1-0)
Vanderbilt (1-0)
Oregon State (1-0)
Michigan (2-0)
Hawaii (1-0)
Portland (1-0)
New Mexico (2-0)
UMASS (3-0)
Mississippi: (10-3)
Minnesota (3-0)
Northwestern State (2-0)
Indiana State (3-0)
Southern Miss (1-0)
Arkansas State (0-1)
TCU (1-2)
San Diego State: (7-7)
San Diego (3-1)
USC (1-0)
Cal-Poly (1-0)
Missouri (0-1)
CAL (0-1)
Fresno State (0-1)
UC-Riverside (1-0)
Santa Clara (0-1)
Loyola-Marymount (0-1)
Oklahoma State (1-0)
Oregon State (0-1)
Mississippi State: (5-7)
North Florida (1-2)
UAB (1-0)
Air Force (2-1)
Ark-Little Rock (1-1)
Baylor (0-3)
Long Beach State: (9-2)
Rice (2-1)
San Diego (0-1)
Wichita State (3-0)
Loyola-Marymount (1-0)
Hawaii (3-0)
Vanderbilt: (8-3)
Oregon State (1-0)
ASU (0-1)
Miami (OH) (1-0)
Evansville (1-0)
Kansas (1-0)
Iowa (0-1)
Xavier (1-0)
Louisville (1-0)
Illinois-Chicago (2-1)
Georgia: (5-6)
Arizona (1-2)
Oregon State (1-2)
Jacksonville State (1-0)
Memphis (2-1)
Washington: (5-6)
UC-Riverside (2-2)
Lewis & Clark State (0-1)
Pacific (2-1)
Cal-Poly (1-2)
Florida: (10-3)
Siena (3-0)
Eastern Michigan (2-0)
Miami (Fla) (1-2)
Campbell (2-0)
Brown (2-1)
Cal-State-Fullerton: (8-4)
TCU (2-1)
Loyola-Marymount (1-0)
Stanford (0-3)
UCLA (2-0)
Southern Miss (3-0)
South Carolina: (9-2)
East Carolina (2-1)
UNC-Asheville (1-0)
Clemson (2-0)
UNC-Charlotte (0-1)
Dequesne (3-0)
Presbyterian (1-0)
Arizona: (10-1)
Georgia (2-1)
Sac-State (3-0)
UNLV (2-0)
South Alabama (1-0)
Tex A&M Corpus-Christi (1-0)
Notre Dame (1-0)
Looks like the SEC Baseball circuit picks right up where the SEC Football gravy train scheduling leaves off. But of course, the SEC will still get its 10 regional bids while Fresno State, UC-Irvine, Cal-Poly, Loyola-Marymount and Santa Clara will hit the road, still likely to wind up in a super-regional or even Omaha with as much regularity as the highly over-rated boys from the SEC.
SEC versus BCS Teams in Baseball:
21-20.
PAC-10 Teams versus BCS Teams in Baseball:
15-7.
Non-BCS West Coast Teams versus BCS Teams:
4-6.
LSU: Tiger Report Coming Soon!
9 - 1
7 - 3
7 - 3
6 - 4
5 - 5
4 - 2
4 - 3
3 - 0
2 - 0
2 - 4
11. 4 - 6
Michigan certainly qualified, as Wolverine Nation quickly tired of a Lloyd Carr era fittingly described as the under-achieving all-stars. Tennessee was the other team that earned the dubious and dreaded under-achieving tab, and if the restlessness and ill contempt on display inside Vol Nation is any indicator, I was certainly justified with my opinion.
EDSBS has repeatedly placed coach Phillip Fulmers under-achieving all stars in the Top-10 for their criminal disposition and dishonorable sensibilities, and combined with their offensive history of ineptitude without Offensive Coordinator David Cutcliff (the new coach at Duke) at the helm of the ship, things could get a bit dicey this season. Coach Fulmer had better win the SEC outright, or at least drop another couple million on a campus library project if he expects to stay in the good graces of Vol Nation.
Despite what every pundit around the country says regarding the SEC (it is the juggernaut of all juggernauts of a conference), the numbers DO NOT back up the hype surrounding this conference. But then again, the administrative heads who were connected to the College Football Association figured out long ago that logical indicators like statistical analysis can be over-looked and performance tress-passes can be forgiven in the eyes of the media, which influences the national pollsters.
Tennessee is 93-34 inside the BCS era, specifically within Fulmers watch, but what stands out in my mind is that Tennessee is always given the benefit of the doubt in the eyes of the pollsters and the national media, especially considering their record against programs who have accomplished elite status (9 wins or more in a given season) has been a complete failure given Tennessees lofty projections year in and year out.
Their Quality Opponent Factor Rating is 18-23, five games below .500 and when considering all the teams they have competed against who have gone on to win at least seven games or more, they are 10 games over .500 (42-32).
Not exactly elite is it? Yet when you talk to even the most competent football fans around the country, they will quickly tell you that Tennessee is certainly elite, especially given the fact that they have won over 10 games a season, five times during the BCS decade, have won at least 9 games twice, have had two 8 win seasons as well, with only have one losing season (5-6 in 2005) out of the last ten on the docket.
So I must be out of my mind when tagging Volunteer Nation as over-rated, right? Not so fast my friends! The Volunteers are 51-2 when playing the Tier-4 programs who have gone on to record losing seasons, with most of the carnage coming from C-USA and the Sun-Belt. If you take that sterling 51-2 record out of the overall record of 93-34, the football Goliath from the Smokey Mountains becomes mortal in a hurry (42-34), a mere 8 games above the marginal .500 mark.
Record QOF vs Winner vs Loser
(2007) 10-4 2-2 6-4 4-0 (0)
(2006) 9-4 2-4 4-4 5-0 (0)
(2005) 5-6 1-4 2-5 3-1 (0)
(2004) 10-3 1-2 4-2 6-1 (0)
(2003) 10-3 2-2 4-3 6-0 (0)
(2002) 8-5 1-4 2-5 6-0 (0)
(2001) 11-2 4-1 7-2 4-0 (0)
(2000) 8-4 0-2 2-4 6-0 (0)
(1999) 9-3 1-2 3-3 6-0 (0)
(1998) 13-0 4-0 8-0 5-0 (0)
TOTALS TOTALS TOTALS TOTALS
93-34 18-23 42-32 51-2
In Tennessees defense, I recognize that they are the only school in the SEC who has not jumped on the Division I-AA scheduling bandwagon in the last 10 years as they have not scheduled a single program from this division during the BCS era. But their BCS record against opponents outside of the mighty (over-rated as well) SEC Conference is a mere 11-9, which doesnt exactly project the superiority that SEC headquarters, who works together with the national media, tries to cultivate.
Throw in the fact that they are a combined 25-23 against the Top-6 teams in the SEC during the same BCS era (1998 - 2008), along with the fact that they only have two seasons out of ten where their record against the elite and winning programs has been respectable, and you get a completely different portrait describing a program that is sliding quickly out of the elite and into mediocrity.
2001
11-2 Overall Record.
4-1 QOF-Factor Rating.
7-2 versus teams with winning records.
4-0 versus teams with losing records.
1998 (BCS National Championship Season)
13-0 Overall Record.
4-0 QOF-Factor Rating.
8-0 versus teams with winning records.
5-0 versus teams with losing records.
Still not convinced that not only Tennessee but the entire SEC benefits from the system a little more than they should? Consider that Tennessee does not have a winning record (13-18) against any of the Top-4 programs inside the BCS era within the SEC (Georgia, Florida, LSU and Auburn), and only when including mediocre programs like Arkansas and Alabama does it rise above the .500 mark. There are essentially two programs in the ENTIRE SEC that are elite...Florida and LSU given the records and accomplishments throughout the BCS era, as most of the hype surrounding this conference derives from the rich history and tradition these programs obtained back inside the early days of the CFA era.
5 - 5
4 - 6
2 - 4
2 - 3
5 - 2
7 - 3
2 - 0
9 - 1
4 - 0
10. 10 - 1
11. 9 - 1
SEC Totals vs Top 6 vs Bottom 5
59 - 26 25 - 23 34 - 3
The SEC Conference doesnt limit their marketing prowess with the networks specifically to the sport of football as well. On numerous occasions, found both in the blogsphere and in the mainstream media, you will quickly hear in voice or witness in print the mantra The Best Conference in the Country, when describing the SEC Baseball teams.
As a former All-PAC-10 baseball player at Oregon State University, and one who also coaches at Willamette University (Division III) in Salem (Ore), I have many close friends, colleagues and associates in Division I sports on the west coast who would sing a similar tune. The SEC is all about the self-fulfilling hype as they will earn as many as nine regional baseball bids per season, and yet where are these teams when Omaha rolls around? Within the era of the BCS, the SEC (other than LSUs four year run) has been a no show in the finals of the College World Series, but when the SEC tournament rolls around in Hoover (Ala) this spring, you can bet you will see this hyperbole statement in bright bold print, either inside the dugout or on the outfield walls: The SEC - The Greatest Conference in the Land.
As you will soon see, the greatest conference in the land, who will likely get at least 9 regional baseball bids this spring, will get the bulk of their victories outside of the conference against the likes of Wright State, Siena, Duquesne, Troy, Davidson, East Tennessee State or Furman, while the teams along the west coast will cannibalize each other (San Diego, San Diego State, Fresno State, Cal-Poly, Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount, UC-Irvine, Cal-Fullerton, Santa Barbara, Long Beach State and the entire PAC-10 Conference), just like during the PAC-10 football campaign.
Thus far this season, here are the results between the SEC programs and the Top programs on the west coast in terms of strength of schedule and results:
SEC Conference vs West Coast Baseball Comparison:
Tennessee: (7-4)
Morehead State (2-1)
Furman (1-0)
Texas (1-0)
Texas Tech (0-1)
Oklahoma (0-1)
James Madison (0-1)
Eastern Michigan (3-0)
Oregon State: (6-5)
Vanderbilt (0-1)
Miami (OH) (1-0)
ASU (0-1)
Georgia (2-1)
Portland (1-0)
Loyola-Marymount (0-1)
San Diego (0-1)
Santa Clara (1-0)
SDSU (1-0)
Alabama: (7-4)
Cal-Poly (1-2)
Tex-Arlington (0-2)
Nevada (1-0)
Dallas Baptist (1-0)
Troy (1-1)
Youngstown State (3-0)
Stanford: (9-4)
Nebraska (2-1)
St. Marys (0-1)
Nevada (1-0)
Cal-State-Fullerton (3-0)
CAL (0-1)
Texas (2-1)
Auburn: (10-4)
East Tennessee State (4-0)
Florida State (0-4)
Davidson (2-0)
VMI (4-0)
USC: (9-4)
Florida-Int (3-0)
SDSU (0-1)
UC-Irvine (0-1)
Bethune Cookman (1-0)
Southern (1-0)
UCLA (0-1)
Pepperdine (1-1)
Winthrop (3-0)
Arkansas: (11-1)
Wright State (3-0)
Kansas (1-0)
LA-Tech (1-0)
Texas A&M (0-1)
Ohio State (1-0)
South Dakota State (2-0)
Siena (3-0)
Washington State: (10-2)
Creighton (2-1)
UNLV (2-0)
Wright State (3-0)
Kent State (3-1)
Kentucky: (13-0)
Xavier (1-0)
Fairfield (1-0)
South Alabama (1-0)
Oakland (2-0)
Butler (4-0)
Evansville (1-0)
Purdue (3-0)
California: (9-1-1)
K-State (1-0)
Utah Valley St (1-0-1)
Fresno State (1-0)
Missouri (0-1)
SDSU (1-0)
San Diego (1-0)
Stanford (1-0)
Northern Iowa (1-0)
Minnesota (1-0)
New Mexico (1-0)
UCLA: (7-4)
Oklahoma (1-1)
UC Santa Barbara (1-0)
Southern (1-0)
Bethune Cookman (1-0)
USC (1-0)
Cal-State-Fullerton (0-2)
St. Marys (2-1)
LSU: (11-2)
Indiana (2-1)
Southern (1-0)
Miss Valley St (1-0)
Duquesne (3-0)
Michigan State (2-0)
Stetson (2-1)
ASU: (12-0)
Miami (OH) (1-0)
Vanderbilt (1-0)
Oregon State (1-0)
Michigan (2-0)
Hawaii (1-0)
Portland (1-0)
New Mexico (2-0)
UMASS (3-0)
Mississippi: (10-3)
Minnesota (3-0)
Northwestern State (2-0)
Indiana State (3-0)
Southern Miss (1-0)
Arkansas State (0-1)
TCU (1-2)
San Diego State: (7-7)
San Diego (3-1)
USC (1-0)
Cal-Poly (1-0)
Missouri (0-1)
CAL (0-1)
Fresno State (0-1)
UC-Riverside (1-0)
Santa Clara (0-1)
Loyola-Marymount (0-1)
Oklahoma State (1-0)
Oregon State (0-1)
Mississippi State: (5-7)
North Florida (1-2)
UAB (1-0)
Air Force (2-1)
Ark-Little Rock (1-1)
Baylor (0-3)
Long Beach State: (9-2)
Rice (2-1)
San Diego (0-1)
Wichita State (3-0)
Loyola-Marymount (1-0)
Hawaii (3-0)
Vanderbilt: (8-3)
Oregon State (1-0)
ASU (0-1)
Miami (OH) (1-0)
Evansville (1-0)
Kansas (1-0)
Iowa (0-1)
Xavier (1-0)
Louisville (1-0)
Illinois-Chicago (2-1)
Georgia: (5-6)
Arizona (1-2)
Oregon State (1-2)
Jacksonville State (1-0)
Memphis (2-1)
Washington: (5-6)
UC-Riverside (2-2)
Lewis & Clark State (0-1)
Pacific (2-1)
Cal-Poly (1-2)
Florida: (10-3)
Siena (3-0)
Eastern Michigan (2-0)
Miami (Fla) (1-2)
Campbell (2-0)
Brown (2-1)
Cal-State-Fullerton: (8-4)
TCU (2-1)
Loyola-Marymount (1-0)
Stanford (0-3)
UCLA (2-0)
Southern Miss (3-0)
South Carolina: (9-2)
East Carolina (2-1)
UNC-Asheville (1-0)
Clemson (2-0)
UNC-Charlotte (0-1)
Dequesne (3-0)
Presbyterian (1-0)
Arizona: (10-1)
Georgia (2-1)
Sac-State (3-0)
UNLV (2-0)
South Alabama (1-0)
Tex A&M Corpus-Christi (1-0)
Notre Dame (1-0)
Looks like the SEC Baseball circuit picks right up where the SEC Football gravy train scheduling leaves off. But of course, the SEC will still get its 10 regional bids while Fresno State, UC-Irvine, Cal-Poly, Loyola-Marymount and Santa Clara will hit the road, still likely to wind up in a super-regional or even Omaha with as much regularity as the highly over-rated boys from the SEC.
SEC versus BCS Teams in Baseball:
21-20.
PAC-10 Teams versus BCS Teams in Baseball:
15-7.
Non-BCS West Coast Teams versus BCS Teams:
4-6.
LSU: Tiger Report Coming Soon!
9 - 1
7 - 3
7 - 3
6 - 4
5 - 5
4 - 2
4 - 3
3 - 0
2 - 0
2 - 4
11. 4 - 6
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