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Close to 9 out of 10 adult Americans obtain weather forecasts regularly, and they do so more than three times each day on average, a new nationwide survey by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has found. The value Americans place on these forecasts appears to be far more than the nation spends on public and private weather services.

9 out of 10 adult Americans obtain weather forecasts regularly

U.S. adults obtain an estimated 300 billion forecasts each year, says NCAR scientist and lead author Jeffrey Lazo. The study also reveals that most people are generally satisfied with weather forecasts and have fairly high confidence in forecasts with a lead time of one to two days.

More than three forecasts a day

The Internet-based survey collected information about respondents’ weather-related activities and experiences, as well as basic demographic information. Of the 1,520 individuals surveyed, 1,465 (96 percent) said they used weather forecasts. Of those 1,465, 87.1 percent reported getting a forecast at least once a day on average, while 9.2 percent reported doing so once a day or less on average.

Although the number of forecasts a person obtains varies significantly from day to day, depending on factors like weather events and planned activities, the researchers found that on average survey participants received forecasts 3.8 times a day. These findings, when extrapolated to the total U.S. adult population of 226 million, indicate that Americans receive a yearly total of about 300 billion forecasts.

Valuing a forecast

The authors cautioned that it is difficult to put a dollar figure on the value of forecasts. However, the researchers asked respondents what they believed forecasts to be worth, presenting them with hypothetical amounts that they were currently paying in taxes and asking if they felt that value was correct, worth more, or worth less than the amount indicated.

Respondents indicated that, on a per-household basis, they would place an average value of about 10.5 cents on every forecast obtained. This equates to an annual value of $31.5 billion. In comparison, the cost of providing forecasts by government agencies and private companies is $5.1 billion, according to the paper.

Fascination with the weather

Coauthor Julie Demuth, an NCAR associate scientist, says the study also reveals people’s curiosity about the weather, with 85%t of respondents saying that more than half the time they obtain forecasts simply to know what the weather will be like.

“This tells us that people generally have a high level of interest in weather forecasts, regardless of whether they are using this information directly for planning and decision making,” says Demuth.

Many people use forecasts for planning specific activities, such as vacations, and routine daily activities, such as deciding what to wear and how to get to work or school. The peak periods for accessing forecasts are the early morning, early evening, and late evening, says Demuth.

The most common source for forecast information is local television stations, with individuals obtaining forecasts 33.7 times per month on average. Cable television and radio are the next most popular sources. Web pages and newspapers were less common sources overall, but both are a daily or more frequent source of forecasts for 27% of respondents.

“We should be doing this type of survey every two to three years so we can see what changes are happening, particularly in how people are using technology like mobile phones and the Internet to receive forecasts,” says Lazo.

Future Forecast

Weather is becoming more and more important to individuals – not for the reasons that this study suggests.

First, I believe it is because people are actually bored. To know that during winter here with 3 feet of snow that Jamaica is a serious possibility, if you win the lottery.  Also, nothing brings a rumble to a slow office than a storm warning.  It is like a new born baby entering a nursing home. Electricity in the air.

Second, it is about knowledge.  To know what is going outside your cubical world. My desktop gadget that just lays quit in the task-bar. My weather icon just sits there, near the logout . . . bringing me information. No pressure to look, but it makes me very happy to see the sun.

Fourth, it is about being connected to the world.  But what about those not working, it is the ultimate infomercial . . . the Weather Channel. The weather Channel is like “Little Eistien” for grown-ups.  Those who are retired keep that channel on 15/7.  The watch it form sunrise to 1 hour after the early bird special at “Denny’s”.  You get to know what’s the weather from your oldest (the over achiever) in Cinicinati, the middle (the rebel) in New York or the youngest (the spoiled brat)  all the way in China “finding him/herself”. It makes it easy to know what each child is facing “day to day”. It also gives an adult a great reason to call, “Hi Stan, this is your mom and your father.  I see it is 80 degrees. How’s the humidity?  Call me back.”

Finally, too be able to know what’s going on in the world easily without any murder, rape or even molestation. It is just the weather. Sure there is from time to time nature can be cruel, but it has nothing to do with “good vs evil”. It is just the weather.

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Tags: internet, televison, Weather

This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 24th, 2009 at 9:09 pm and is filed under computer, internet, news. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.