Researchers warn that a weak climate pact won’t slow climate change

By Jean-Marie Macabrey

E&E News: BRUSSELS — Yesterday, as European leaders gathered to ponder ways to pay for the fight against climate change, three scientists meeting only a few blocks away had a strong message for them: A soft climate change agreement may not stop the climate from reaching a tipping point.

The trio of scientists was presenting a report synthesizing new research results on climate change and reviewing options for tackling the problem. The report, meant as an inspiration for politicians, stems from work done at a major conference attended by 2,000 scientists from more than 70 countries, held this past March in Copenhagen.

Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, who will host the U.N. conference on climate change coming up in Copenhagen in December, received the text yesterday in Brussels.

Alluding to Japanese and U.S. greenhouse emission reduction targets, John Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a member of the report’s writing team, termed “reckless” any aim for what he called a “lukewarm” approach in Copenhagen.

“‘Lukewarm’ would mean ‘Don’t hurt anybody, do what the smallest political denominator tells you,’” said Shellnhuber in an interview. “This is almost a wartime situation. We are at war with nature now, and in wartime, you have to make decisions which hurt.”

Schellnhuber wants the European Union to make an unconditional commitment in Copenhagen to a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions: “Either it’s technologically feasible and you can do it immediately, or it’s not feasible and it’s just a game you’re playing,” he said. So far, the European Union has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent by the year 2020, as compared to 1990 levels, and has offered to reduce emissions by 30 percent if other developed countries do the same.

2 degrees warmer could reach a ‘tipping point’

According to Schellnhuber, there is evidence that just 1 to 2 degrees of warming may trigger so-called “tipping points” caused by man-made climate change. Within this context, a “tipping point” is defined as a situation in which “change is abrupt, large, and potentially irreversible in time frames relevant for contemporary society.”

Among the tipping points scientists are studying are: the melting of the Greenland ice sheet; changes in the Asian monsoon; loss of water storage capacity in the Himalayan glaciers; and ocean acidification, which could create oxygen-deprived oceanic areas, in turn placing habitats such as the Great Barrier Reef at risk.

“The problem [of climate change] is so big already that you either decide you want to solve it, and that means the transformation of our infrastructure in the next decade, or you say this thing is too big for us, let’s leave it alone, let’s try to raise the sea walls,” said Schellnhuber. “Either you make a decision like Churchill in the war and talk about blood, sweat and tears, or you say, ‘Let’s surrender.’”

According to the report presented yesterday in Brussels, data collected since the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that a number of climate indicators — sea level rise, ocean temperature, glacier melt, Arctic sea ice melt and ocean acidification — are now undergoing changes at the maximum rate projected in 2007, or even faster.

“The newest evidence indicates that society faces serious risks, even if the global temperature rises only about 2 degrees,” said Katherine Richardson, a University of Copenhagen professor and chairwoman of the report’s writing team. “The greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are already at a level that is predicted to cause warming of around 2 degrees, so major emission cuts should be made immediately to [restrain] climate change. The clock is ticking.”

Changes reaching the upper boundary of predictions

Yesterday’s report in Brussels lists six key findings for politicians heading for Copenhagen:

• Greenhouse gas emissions and many aspects of the climate are now evolving near the upper boundary of the IPCC’s projection range.

• Societies and ecosystems are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change.

• Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of serious impacts — including the crossing of tipping points — and make the task of meeting 2050 targets harder and more costly.

• An effective, well-funded adaptation safety net is required for those people least able to cope with the impact of climate change, and equitable mitigation strategies are needed to protect the poor and most vulnerable.

• Inaction is inexcusable: Society is already equipped with many tools and approaches for dealing effectively with climate change, and must use these vigorously and widely.

• A number of significant constraints (such as inertia in social and economic systems) must be overcome, and critical opportunities (such as building on a public desire for governments to act on climate change) must be seized.

The Danish government will convey these points to the delegates set to attend the Copenhagen conference.

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