Gross Domestic Product fell by 5.6% in the second quarter after 4.9% in the first quarter of the year. NIESR figures had suggested a deterioration in performance into the second half but the initial estimate of 5.2% fall was a little optimistic. On a quarter by quarter basis, the fall was 0.8% following a fall of 2.4% in the previous quarter. Compared to the prior two recessions, it is now clear the recession is far worse than the modest downturn of 1990 and is even surpassing the severe rec... Read Full Story

Retail sales in June were up by 2.8% in volume terms compared to prior year and up by just 2.5% in value according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) claimed the latest data confirmed the BRC's results for June, suggesting sunshine, barbecues and clearance sales boosted June's spending.BRC retail sales had increased by 1.4% on a like for like basis. Food sales were helped by the hot sunny weather as the UK dusted off the barbecues.... Read Full Story

Keynes led us to believe the economy is like a fruit machine. Input the stimulus, pull the lever, the wheels spin and the jackpot of growth, falling unemployment and stable prices can be achieved.Furthermore, models of the economy and the econometrics within are now so sophisticated, given a set target for growth and jobs, the required stimulus can easily be estimated. According to the Christine Romer, Chair of the Council of Economic advisors in the Obama administration, the arithmetic of r... Read Full Story

Government borrowing in June was £13 billion compared to £7.5 billion in June 2008. In the first three months of the year public sector net borrowing was £41.2 billion. This is some £20 billion higher than in the same period of 2008/9 and £ 5 billion higher than the whole of 2007/8.Figures for April and May have been revised to the down side and June is below anticipated levels. Nevertheless, the Chancellor remains on track to hit the £175 billion borrowing target for the year. At the end of... Read Full Story

“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. We are 19 months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010.  Nouriel Roubini - Dr Doom speaks on the USA.“Last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. The consensus argued this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession a... Read Full Story

China's economy grew by 7.9pc between April and June, confirming the country recovery from the financial crisis. The economy is on course to hit the target of 8pc growth in GDP this year following growth of 7.1% in the first half.GDP growth was 6.1 per cent in the first quarter, but a surge in bank lending and the government's 4 trillion yuan (£356bn) fiscal stimulus package has stimulated growth. China is currently printing almost three times as much new money as the United States to fuel t... Read Full Story

Unemployment claimant count basis increased by 23,800 in June to 1.560 million. The increase in May has been modified to just under thirty one thousand. Job losses in the first quarter were 280,000. In the second quarter job losses claimant count basis are around 100,000. Things are getting worse but at a much slower rate. The broader Labour Force survey measure increased to 2.381 million in the three months to May compared to 2.261 million in the three months February to April, an unemploym... Read Full Story

Inflation CP basis fell to 1.8% in June compared to 2.2% in May, below the Government target and the remit of the Monetary policy committee. RPI fell to -1.6% and the RPIX rate of inflation fell to 1.0% from 1.6%.CPI service sector inflation increased by 3.2% in the month compared to 3.5% in May. Once again the headline CPI rate was flattered to the downside by an increase in goods inflation of just 0.8% compared to 1.1% prior month.Clothing and footwear price levels were down by over -8% bu... Read Full Story

The output price index for sales of manufactured products fell by -1.2% in the year to June compared to a fall of -0.3% in the year to May. Input prices for materials and fuels purchased by manufacturing fell by -11 per cent in the year to June compared to a fall of just under 9% in the year to May.The change in output prices was dominated by a near 20% fall in petroleum prices. The contributions in the changes to the total input index were headlined by a fall in Crude oil prices (-37%), imp... Read Full Story

The global economy is beginning to pull out of a recession but stabilization is uneven and the recovery is expected to be sluggish according to the latest IMF World Economic Outlook. World growth in 2009 is expected to fall by 2.6%. Economic growth during 2009–10 is now projected to be about ½ percentage points higher than projected in the April forecast reaching 2.5 percent in 2010.The IMF asserts the global recession is not over, and the recovery is expected to be slow, as financial system... Read Full Story