Morning Model Thoughts
November 26th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino 12:24 PM The 12Z GFS and PARA GFS are now in and I want to address a few features that I think are very important for the next 15 days. Over the past few weeks, actually since October, I’ve been steady in advertising the threat that I saw coming for early December as the pattern changes.  The basis of these thoughts started with the warming in the stratosphere and how eventually these changes in combination with a negative QBO phase in the atm... Read Full Story
Happy Thanksgiving!
Be thankful, this storm is staying east
November 26th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino 7:57 AM We should be thankful for many things today, and one of those things is that the upper level disturbance over the Mississippi Valley is not as strong as advertised the past few days. As we can see with the Water Vapor Satellite picture, plenty of moisture associated with a Sub Tropical Disturbance off the Southeast coast is moving up the Mid Atlantic coast.  The moisture, at all levels of the atmosphere, will provide cloudy conditions for mu... Read Full Story
TODAY’S HEADLINES
Cloudy and damp conditions dominate the day
November 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino 8:16 AM The day before Thanksgiving is always a very busy travel day throughout the United States and especially for the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas.  This year will be no different and the weather conditions over the next few days will have a major roll in traveling conditions.  Throughout this forecast, I leaned heavily on the NAM, ECMWF, and Canadian guidance.  The GFS this morning is too over phased in my opinion and does n... Read Full Story
TODAY’S HEADLINES
Evening Thoughts- storm threat increases for Friday
November 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino 10:15 PM Tonight I’ve been going over the various models from the 12Z and 18 Z guidance.  First I want to touch on the storm potential for Thursday night into Friday. The 18Z models are a good indicator of where models are trending or adjusting to.  Both the 18Z GFS and NAM produced a stronger and more westward positioned coastal low for Thursday night into Friday for the northern Mid Atlantic.  By thoughts in the morning have not changed on t... Read Full Story
Pattern changes and turkey dinners
November 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino 7:45 AM Water Vapor-NWS/NOAA A weak yet pesky low pressure system continues to move away from the New Jersey coast this morning, however the persistent northeast to easterly winds associated with the low is keeping overcast skies and damp conditions over much of the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered showers continue to move through much of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey this morning, but will weaken as the upper disturbance supporting the low pr... Read Full Story
TODAY’S HEADLINES
Evening Thoughts- the appetizer before the main course
November 23rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino 8:15 PM This evening, a weak area of low pressure is slowly moving north from the Virginia coastal waters towards the New England coastal waters.  Widespread showers have developed over much of the northern Mid Atlantic and will continue to expand northward through the evening. The upper level low that spawned the coastal low is quickly being forced into the Atlantic by a stronger disturbance diving into the Southern Plains.  As a result, this low p... Read Full Story