Winds of change bring drier conditions for the weekend

8:22 AM

The upper level pattern is starting to go into a period of changes over the next seven days that will at least blunt the constant barrage of disturbances that have moved through the forecast area the past few days.  Let’s take a look at the water vapor this morning!

The most import detail to note this morning is that the trough axis has shifted from the central Great Lakes into the eastern Great Lakes and western Pennsylvania.  This shift is very important as this is a sign the trough is about to lift into the Canadian Maritimes.  Also, note the weak disturbance over western Ontario.  That disturbance will eventually intensify into another closed low pressure system over the central Great Lakes and will take hold by the end of the weekend.  Between now and Sunday night though, the upper level winds and 500 MB pattern will be in a state of flux, which means that disturbances that do move through will be very weak and will be more focused towards the north and east of the Mid Atlantic.  

Now, for those that got and read the News Letter, I pointed out that a change that could bring potentially warmer and dry conditions to the forecast area could be an intensification of the trough off the West coast.  The latest guidance is starting to hint at that potential, especially towards the end of the week.  As the new trough over the Great Lakes lifts towards Quebec on Wednesday, the ridge over the Gulf Coast and Mississippi Valley will build into the Mid Atlantic along with warmer and more humid conditions.  However, before we get to that point, the forecast area will have to deal with another round of disturbances, showers, and potential severe weather.  

For today, expect clear to partly cloudy skies as the region is in between two upper level disturbances.  The trough axis and the upper level disturbance associated with the trough axis will swing through the region late this afternoon through the overnight hours, producing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The majority of the lifting with this feature will be focused over the northern Hudson Valley and New England, so any shower or thunderstorm will be weak and likely brief in duration.  

On Saturday and much of Sunday, the forecast area will be on the western side of the trough which will provide generally dry conditions over the forecast area for this weekend.  I still can’t rule out a weak mid level disturbance producing a weak isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, but otherwise conditions will be far better than what was experienced last weekend.  Temperatures will generally average near to slightly below normal with highs in the 70’s and lower 80’s.

The new upper low and reestablished trough takes hold on Sunday night and Monday with another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The low pressure system will be weak and the precipitation will be no where near as organized as compared to previous upper level lows this season.  

Another round of cold fronts will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Otherwise, partly cloudy skies can be expected with temperatures near normal.  On Thursday, high pressure will begin to build into the forecast area from the Ohio Valley, providing clear skies and temperatures breaking into the upper 80’s for highs.

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