How the Golden Globes Affect the Oscar Race

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The Academy Awards are more than a month out, but with the Golden Globes behind us, the race is on. If history is any indication, most Oscar winners will have already taken home gold. Of the four stars who scored Oscars last year — Meryl Streep, Jean Dujardin, Christopher Plummer, Octavia Spencer — each had previously won a Globe.

Bearing in mind the correlation between past GG winners and Academy Award champs, here's a look at how this year's Oscar race might pan out.

Best Picture
Argo, Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
Golden Globe Winners: Les Miserables - Best Comedy or Musical; Argo - Best Drama

Lincoln was the frontrunner to win Best Drama at the Golden Globes, but lost out to Argo. Arguably the biggest surprise of the night, the upset gives Ben Affleck's film needed momentum going into the Oscars. Still, only three films have ever won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination — Affleck won Best Director at the GGs, but wasn't even nominated by the Academy. And over the last 10 years, only four Globe winners have taken Best Picture at the Oscars. But maybe voters will compensate for his snub by giving Argo top prize.

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Denzel Washington (Flight), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Golden Globe Winners: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln); Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

Daniel Day-Lewis has been favored to win Best Actor at the Oscars since the day his face landed on the first Lincoln poster. Then the movie came out, critics lauded his performance, and his odds went higher than a Canadian pop star in a Newport Beach hotel room. If anyone can upset the Brit, it's fellow Globe winner Hugh Jackman. A look at past winners shows that 18 of the last 28 Globe victors went on to score Oscar gold.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Naomi Watts (The Impossible), Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Golden Globe Winners: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty); Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

Twenty-two of the last 28 Globe winners took home the Oscar, which bodes well for Chastain and Lawrence. Both were favored to win in their respective categories, and both did, so the result has little effect on their Oscar odds. We're pulling for Lawrence, mostly because she gives the best acceptance speeches. Assuming Academy voters share our sentiment, that could swing the vote her way.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin (Argo), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained), Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Robert De Niro (Silver Linings), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Golden Globe Winner: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Over the last five years, the Supporting Actor winners at the Globes and Oscars have been a perfect match. Christopher Plummer (Beginners), Christian Bale (The Fighter), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds), and Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) all doubled up their hardware. This year, the trend should continue, though the competition is stiff in Jones, Hoffman, and the sentimental pick, De Niro. Still, history shows Academy voters follow the Globes' lead, which is why we're stickin' with Waltz for the win. (Fun fact: If Waltz does win, it'll be the second time in three years he'll have won an Oscar for starring in a Quentin Tarantino film.)

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), Sally Field (Lincoln), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook), Amy Adams (The Master)
Golden Globe Winner: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Hathaway was a lock to win Best Supporting Actress at the Globes, and now that she has that win under her belt, she should easily walk away with her first trophy at the Oscars. If Academy voters had any reservations, her Globes win likely negated any lingering concern.

I'm a former Associate Editor at Zimbio.