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We do this every year and always say the same thing: Trust in directors and writers over actors when choosing awards favorites. Obviously, there are exceptions, but one thing that stays consistent when it comes to Oscar nominations is the voters love past winners. They also love true stories, period stories, stories about the film industry, and stories that make money. With that formula in mind, here are our ridiculously early picks for the 2018 Academy Awards, one year before the show.