2008 Presidential Candidates

Rick Santorum Should Be In South Carolina, Not New Hampshire!

After a razor thin 8-vote loss to Mitt Romney in Iowa, Rick Santorum is in New Hampshire hoping to shock the political world yet again. But, as Admiral Ackbar warns, “IT’S A TRAP!!!”

Let’s look at this without the Star Wars joke.

Rick Santorum has virtually no money, he’s really far back in the polls in New Hampshire, and he’s trailing in South Carolina according to recent polls, as well. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, has an enormous lead in New Hampshire and so much money that he wipes his butt with campaign donations. It really doesn’t make any sense that Rick Santorum would be in New Hampshire. Yes, it’s true that Santorum has spent the most time in the state of any of the candidates except Jon Huntsman. That really says more about the foolishness of his campaign strategists than anything else, though.

Rick Santorum is a solid conservative candidate that conservatives of all backgrounds could really get behind (Ron Paul’s supporters aren’t conservatives, they’re anti-conservative reactionaries and anarchists). The problem is that he is most often and easily identified as a social conservative. Unfortunately, while that was a huge benefit to him in Iowa, it doesn’t mean squat in New Hampshire, which is typically more interested in limited government and cutting taxes. Herein lies the trap that catches so many underdog candidates.

To illustrate what is going to happen, let’s take a minute to look at Mike Huckabee in 2008. After winning Iowa, Huckabee was on top of the world… except financially. In a lot of ways, he was in a much better position than Rick Santorum coming out of Iowa, having beaten Romney in a nearly landslide fashion. Like Santorum, Huckabee made the decision to go to New Hampshire… where he lost… miserably. Then, after that loss, Huckabee went to Michigan; Mitt Romney’s home state. He lost again, coming in third after Romney and McCain. By the time Huckabee got to South Carolina, a state he should have won in a landslide, Huckabee found himself trying to fend off John McCain while Fred Thompson mercilessly attacked Huckabee. Huckabee narrowly lost South Carolina’s primary to McCain before Thompson dropped out.

Granted, Huntsman will be out of the race after he loses New Hampshire, but Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich aren’t dropping out until after losing South Carolina (or possibly even Florida or Super Tuesday if the trend of waves of random support for random candidates continues. Granted, Santorum won’t have to worry about Newt attacking him. Perry, on the other hand, might violently attack all of his opponents, including Santorum, in order to make a last stand in South Carolina.

Because Santorum has no chance of winning New Hampshire, like Huckabee, he really should head down to South Carolina and make his stand there. You have to remember, Santorum spent months preparing for his narrow loss to Romney in Iowa. He has precious few days in New Hampshire, so a victory there is almost entirely out of the question. South Carolina, on the other hand, is much more in line with his natural demographic and is at least weeks (not days) away. However, if Santorum is going to survive the kind of infrastructure Mitt Romney’s money can buy, he needs every second he can possibly get working his tail off in South Carolina.

Sun Tzu said, “He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot will be victorious.”

Rick Santorum, lose the battle in New Hampshire and focus instead on winning the war. As Admiral Ackbar said, “IT’S A TRAP!”