THE FIGHT FOR THE EU PRESIDENCY IS HEATING UP

Gonzalez has headed a blue-ribbon "Council of Wise Persons" to make recommendations for strengthening the EU since December 2007. Undoubtedly, there was a Solana strategy in that selection. The smaller, weaker countries of the EU wish to continue to have a voice after the Lisbon Treaty goes into effect. It is expected by many that the Treaty will be ratified and in place come the fall of 2009. If the small countries feel that they will have no voice or that their voice may be drowned out by a more charismatic Tony Blair, their acquiescence to the Treaty ratification may possibly be dropped.

My present guess is that Javier Solana is going to get his way on this one. Time and events will tell. Tony Blair is opposed by Socialist countries because of his former support for the Iraq war. Silvio Berlusconi has declared per the linked account, his support for Tony Blair. Javier Solana and Berlusconi had their well publicized run-ins in the past. When Silvio Berlusconi held the six month 2003 rotating Italian presidency of the European Union, Javier Solana told him very abruptly and very publicly that European foreign policy is set in Brussels, not in Rome.

Solana is one very clever operator. He desperately wants the enhanced powers for the Foreign Minister that will go with the Lisbon Treaty ratification. He has long said that Europe needs to speak with one voice. So far Javier Solana has been that one voice. He wants his voice strengthened, not weakened. He also does not want his voice diluted by a charismatic European leader. It appears to me that he intends to remain such and if Tony Blair gets the job, Solana's role may be somewhat diluted.

I may be wrong, but that's how I presently view it. If I were a gambling person viewing the cards I now see, I would put my money on Javier Solana. Further, between Tony Blair and Javier Solana, based on my present knowledge, I would buy a used car from neither of them.

Stay tuned!

CONSTANCE