Crude Oil and Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's choppy sideway's trading is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. A break below 76.55 support will indicate that fall from 82.00 has resumed and should have a test on 38.2% retracement of 65.05 to 82 at 75.53 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 71.52. On the upside, nevertheless, above 81.06 minor resistance will signal that the sideway trading from 82.00 has completed and will bring retest of this high first.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed for the moment. As note before, a medium term top might be formed at 82.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. However, the corrective look of price actions from 82.0 so far are not supporting this case. But after all, we'd slightly favor the bearish case as long as 81.06 minor resistance holds. That is, whole medium term rise has topped out at 82.0 already. Further decline should be seen to trend line support (now at 71.20) after taking out 76.55 support. Sustained trading below the trend line will add much credence to this case and target 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation.

On the upside, however, above 81.06 will argue that price actions from 82.0 are merely consolidations only. Break of 82.0 will indicate that whole rise from 33.2 has resumed. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.....Here is the charts!

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Intraday bias in natural gas is still mildly on the downside with 4.70 minor resistance intact. Recent choppy fall might extend further but still, downside is expected to expected to be contained by 55 days EMA (now at 4.367) and bring rally resumption. Above 4.70 will flip intraday bias back to the upside first. Further break of 5.318 resistance will target 38.2% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 6.7 next. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 55 days EMA will indicate that whole rebound from 2.409 might have completed and will turn short term outlook bearish for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. The whole consolidation might have completed at 2.409 after meeting 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50. We'll prefer the bullish case as long 55 days EMA (now at 4.367) holds and expect the current rise from 2.409 to extend further to 61.8% retracement of 13.64 to 2.409 at 9.38 in medium term. However, sustained trading below 55 days EMA will argue that rebound from 2.409 has completed and will turn focus back to this low.....Here is the charts!